Gambia Recorded 8% Rainfall Deficit In 2026 As El Niño Threatens 2027 Farming Season

The Gambia recorded an average cumulative rainfall of 799.5 millimetres during the 2026 rainy season, representing an 8 per cent deficit against the country’s long-term national average of 871.7 millimetres, as concerns grow over the potential impact of a developing El Niño event on the 2027 agricultural season.

According to the Department of Water Resources (DWR), rainfall recorded between 1st May and October 31st, 2026, was below the 1991–2020 national average and also represented a 12 per cent reduction compared with the corresponding period in 2025.

Assessing the overall performance of the 2026 rainy season, DWR Chief Meteorologist Dr Peter Gibba, described it as generally below normal, with considerable spatial and temporal variations across the country.

He explained that the season was characterised by delayed onset, particularly in the central and western parts of the country, followed by prolonged dry spells, especially during June and July.

These unfavourable conditions affected farming activities, including planting schedules, seed germination and crop establishment, raising concerns about their implications for agricultural productivity.

Dr Gibba noted that rainfall distribution was uneven across the country, with some stations in the eastern region, particularly Basse and Fatoto, recording above-average rainfall, while several stations in the central and western parts experienced rainfall deficits.

Despite the difficult start to the season, he observed that crop growth improved considerably during August and September following more favourable rainfall conditions.

El Niño concerns

Looking ahead, Dr Gibba identified the developing El Niño phenomenon as a major climate concern for The Gambia as the country prepares for the 2027 rainy season.

He said current climate monitoring indicated a 97 per cent probability of El Niño conditions persisting into early 2027, with an 81 per cent probability of reaching very strong intensity during November and December 2026.

According to Dr Gibba, the El Niño could increase the likelihood of rainfall variability, above-average temperatures and potentially prolonged dry spells in The Gambia.

He warned that these conditions could influence the onset, duration and distribution of rainfall during the 2027 rainy season, with significant implications for agricultural production, water availability and national food security.

Beyond agriculture, he cautioned that associated heat wave conditions could pose serious risks to human and animal health.

He explained that prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures could result in heat exhaustion, dehydration and heatstroke, particularly among vulnerable groups, including children, older persons, outdoor workers and people with underlying health conditions.

“Livestock production could also be affected, as excessive heat may cause heat stress, dehydration, reduced feed intake, slower growth rates and declining milk production. In severe cases, extreme heat could result in animal deaths”.

Dr Gibba further warned that the combination of high temperatures and limited water availability could aggravate these challenges, placing additional pressure on households, livestock owners and agricultural communities.

With the possibility of increased climate variability in 2027, Dr Gibba has urged Gambians, particularly farmers, to prepare adequately for a potentially challenging rainy season.

He advised farmers to pay close attention to official seasonal climate forecasts and regular updates issued by the Department of Water Resources before making critical agricultural decisions, especially those relating to planting.

He also encouraged farmers to consider adopting early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties to minimise potential losses associated with delayed rainfall onset and prolonged dry spells.

“Other recommended measures include improved soil and water conservation practices, strengthening water harvesting systems, conserving soil moisture and improving drainage infrastructure in flood-prone areas” he said

He stressed the importance of ensuring that agricultural inputs are adequately prepared ahead of the rainy season to enable farmers to respond promptly when favourable planting conditions emerge.

Dr Gibba assured that they will continue to closely monitor developments associated with El Niño and provide timely climate information, seasonal forecasts and early warnings to support farmers, policymakers and other stakeholders.

He emphasised that access to reliable climate information and the adoption of appropriate adaptation measures would be critical in reducing the potential impacts of climate variability on agriculture, water resources and livelihoods in 2027.

“Preparedness, timely access to reliable climate information and appropriate adaptation measures will be essential in reducing the potential impacts of climate variability on agriculture, water resources and livelihoods in 2027,” he added.

The chief meteorologist also warns of possible prolonged dry spells, rising temperatures and threats to agricultural production and water availability.

As The Gambia looks towards another agricultural season, the 2026 rainfall deficit and the emerging El Niño threat underscore the importance of strengthening climate preparedness, improving water management and building resilience within the country’s agricultural sector.