Gambia’s Economic Growth To Slow To 5.1% As Energy Crisis, Revenue Shortfalls Persist – IMF

The Gambia’s real GDP growth will slow to 5.1% in 2026 and 2027, down from 6% in 2025, the International Monetary Fund has projected.

The forecast was released on October 30 after the sixth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and third review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

Growth will be driven by construction, tourism and remittances. Inflation eased from 7% in April to 6.1% in September 2026, but remains above the Central Bank of The Gambia’s 5% target.

The outlook faces serious risks: volatile commodity prices, geopolitical uncertainty, climate shocks and persistent energy sector failures.

On fiscal policy, the IMF urged the government to cut debt vulnerabilities while protecting social spending. It called for stronger revenue collection, expenditure control, better cash management and timely settlement of arrears to tackle persistent poverty.

Energy remains a major concern. After recent blackouts, the government provided emergency financial support to Nawec. The Fund said Nawec must cut operating losses, improve revenue collection and restore financial sustainability.

$28 million disbursement expected
Following a mission to Banjul, Gambian authorities and IMF staff reached staff-level agreement on the sixth ECF and third RSF reviews. The agreement paves way for an additional $28 million disbursement.

The release is subject to IMF Executive Board approval.

The IMF said programme performance remains broadly strong. Government met all eight quantitative performance criteria for end-June 2026 and achieved three of four indicative targets. The tax revenue target was missed.