A divided Africa, stronger Latin American rivals and the power politics of the UN Security Council’s five veto powers – the US, China, Russia, the UK and France –have not yet closed off his path, but could leave the former Senegalese president with little room to build momentum.
By Sheriff Bojang Jr
The race to replace António Guterres at the helm of the United Nations when his second term ends in December is only just taking shape, but the early dynamics are already pointing to a challenging path for Senegal’s former president, Macky Sall.
As a former head of state with more than a decade in power, a regular at global summits and a leader who sought to position Senegal as a steady diplomatic actor in an often volatile region, Sall looks like a serious contender.
But in the UN system, credentials only go so far. What matters is alignment between regions, between power blocs and, ultimately, inside the closed room of the Security Council, where decisions are made quietly and candidates rise or fall.
“This is as much a test of Senegal’s diplomacy as it is of Sall’s own credentials,” says Rama Salla Dieng, a Senegalese political scientist and adjunct senior lecturer at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance.
At the heart of Sall’s campaign is a contradiction. He has a credible international profile, but his domestic record remains contested, a tension that now follows him into the race for the UN’s top job.
A race already moving past him?
Privately, some diplomats say this race is not about Africa. It is about Latin America and who from that field can command enough support to get over the line.
Africa had Kofi Annan, Asia had Ban Ki-moon and Europe has Guterres. The last time a Latin American held the position was over 35 years ago, which, according to Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at Development Reimagined, strengthens the rotation argument.
Analysts say that once that perception sets in, it becomes difficult for candidates from outside that rotation to build serious momentum.
For Federico Manfredi Firmian, a visiting scholar at American University and associate research fellow at the Institute for International Political Studies, the race is ultimately about who attracts the least resistance.
“The most viable candidate is one who does not trigger opposition from any of the permanent five members of the Security Council,” he says. “The process is less about broad enthusiasm and more about avoiding vetoes.”
That dynamic, he adds, tends to favour candidates with fewer political scars.
“Macky Sall may face some constraints here, as Senegal recorded a documented decline in political and civil liberties during his presidency, which could raise concerns among some members,” Firmian tells
The field Sall is up against
The line-up reflects that reality, with several prominent candidates from Latin America.
Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argentina, currently director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, brings high-level multilateral experience from leading one of the UN system’s most sensitive institutions, having previously served as Argentina’s ambassador to Austria and representative to international organisations in Vienna.
‘The most viable candidate is one who does not trigger opposition from any of the permanent five members of the Security Council’
Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, a seasoned United Nations insider, heads UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), where she focuses on global economic governance, debt and development, after earlier roles, including Ibero-American secretary-general and senior positions within the UN Development Programme.
Michelle Bachelet of Chile, a two-time president with one of the strongest UN track records, served as the first executive director of UN Women and later as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, entering the race as a frontrunner before Chile’s far-right president Jose Antonio Kast withdrew official backing.
Though Bachelet’s campaign has been bruised by Chile’s withdrawal, she remains firmly in the race. Firmian warns her centre-left profile is “likely to meet resistance” from the Trump administration in Washington.
“Meanwhile, Grossi appears like a very strong contender given his technocratic profile and ability to engage both Western powers and Russia on sensitive nuclear issues.”
Both Grossi and Grynspan, according to Eguegu, are more popular in Europe and the US, a dynamic that could make it harder for Sall to secure the crucial Security Council consensus among the five permanent members (US, China, Russia, UK, France).
“Washington is likely to insist on a Latin American candidate,” he says, pointing to the Trump administration’s push to consolidate influence in the region and the Latino background of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
Africa not speaking with one voice
If Sall – nominated by Burundi – could rely on a unified African push, analysts argue he might still be able to build leverage. Instead, his candidacy has exposed deep fractures across the continent. More than 20 African countries, including Senegal, Nigeria, South Africa and Rwanda, broke ranks to object to the African Union adopting him as a unified candidate.
Their opposition has left Sall without the collective backing that often serves as the launchpad for global campaigns.
“The absence of a unified African Union endorsement does weaken him,” Firmian says. “A unified endorsement signals that a candidate represents a continental consensus. In Sall’s case, the lack of unity – combined with the fact that his candidacy appears to be backed primarily by Burundi and a limited number of states – undercuts that perception.”
He adds that the optics are further complicated at home.
“The reported lack of support from the current Senegalese government is also a liability. Ideally, viable candidates face minimal opposition both domestically and regionally.”
Dieng agrees that the fragmentation is costly. “Successful bids for Secretary General typically rely on cohesive regional backing to build momentum within the General Assembly and to negotiate acceptance among the permanent members of the Security Council. Sall’s candidacy, by contrast, exposes divisions within African diplomacy rather than embodying a unified continental project,” she says.
For rights advocate Afia Asantewaa Asare-Kyei, it is not whether one likes Sall or not. “It is about the leadership that is needed in the UN at this critical juncture, and we have to get that decision and choice right,” she says.
“It is therefore imperative that the highest office in the UN is occupied by a man or woman who will be a strong and respected moral voice in the international community, ensure institutional credibility and integrity, able to build/restore trust and boldly speak out against human rights abuses.” That, she argues, is not Sall.
A campaign without a home base
After weeks of pressure from politicians and civil society activists, at home to decide on Sall’s candidadcy, the Senegalese government last week chose to distance itself from his bid, leaving him to push ahead without a clear base. Officials have linked his presidency to the deaths of dozens of protesters during periods of unrest and accused his administration of building up what they describe as ‘hidden debt’, claims that are now part of the wider conversation around his bid.
For Dieng, Dakar’s decision to withhold support is a calculated strategic decision. “Backing a divisive, low-traction candidacy could cost more credibility than it gains,” she says.
In contrast, Aissata Tall Sall, a lawmaker, former foreign minister under Sall, and one of his most loyal allies, warned Senegal would regret the decision. “Frankly, what the country has done diplomatically has gone largely unnoticed, and it will catch up with us,” she told a press conference in Dakar. “For the first time in our history, we have a son of the country worthy of holding this unique, top-level global position, and yet the country has turned its back on him.”
Hawa Ba, associate director at the Open Society Foundations, however, describes Sall’s candidacy as a “blatant testimony of a failure to fight impunity”, saying it sends a “worrying signal that a former head of State who, while in power, used state-sponsored violence to suppress dissenting voices, continues to enjoy impunity using the international system”.
The UN, being the guarantor of a rules-based order, she says, cannot have at its helm someone who used his position of power to “undermine these same rules”.
“Unsurprisingly, it is safe to say that the majority of Senegalese are angry and revolted by what they see as an attempt to whitewash Sall’s crimes. They don’t understand how it is possible, after what the entire world witnessed during the last four years of Macky’s presidency, that his suitability to be a UN chief is even debated,” Ba says.
The challenge now shifts to New York.
“The arithmetic is tough,” says Firmian. A candidate needs at least nine votes in the Security Council and no vetoes. Sall’s best chance, he adds, would be to build stronger African backing – especially from African members on the Council – while positioning himself as a compromise candidate acceptable to the five veto powers.
