By Tombong Saidy
Unite Movement For Change
A new AidData report has just turned one of the world’s biggest geopolitical assumptions upside down. For years, Washington has warned nations — especially developing ones — about the “dangers” of taking Chinese loans. Yet the startling truth emerging from two decades of data is that the United States itself has been the single largest beneficiary of Chinese lending.
Between 2000 and 2023, Chinese state-owned entities disbursed US$2.2 trillion in loans and grants across more than 200 countries. And at the top of the list, far above the rhetoric, is not Pakistan, not Ethiopia, not any Belt and Road country — but the United States, which quietly received more than US$200 billion for nearly 2,500 projects across almost every one of its states.
So who is really dependent on whom?
For years, China has been painted as a “predatory lender”, accused of trapping developing countries in debt. Yet the same United States that pushes this narrative has allowed Chinese state-backed financiers to support its energy pipelines, LNG plants, airport terminals, and even the acquisition of high-tech companies. More than half of these US-bound loans came as liquidity support to American corporations — meaning American firms relied on Chinese credit lines to stay afloat or expand. If this is “predation”, then the wealthiest nations are its most enthusiastic customers.
The dominant global story has always framed China’s financial reach through the lens of the Belt and Road Initiative — bridges, ports, and highways in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. But AidData’s findings show a different reality: Three-quarters of China’s overseas lending now goes to upper-middle and high-income nations. This is not just generosity, this is global relevance.
China’s rise is not simply about being “the second-largest economy”. That label itself is misleading. A country that finances the world’s biggest economy,
supplies affordable goods to billions, anchors global manufacturing, fuels infrastructure from Karachi to Kentucky, and champions trade, connectivity, and shared prosperity cannot honestly be called “second” in any meaningful sense.
China has become the engine of global growth. Without its manufacturing scale, global inflation would soar. Without its credit, even advanced economies would stall. Without its supply chains, the world’s largest corporations could not function.
Here’s another critical piece of the puzzle: China holds a massive stake in US debt through its holdings of US Treasury bonds. As of late 2024 and into 2025, China held roughly US$757 to US$760 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of America’s largest foreign creditors.
This is not a marginal detail. It means that the United States not only borrows from China through private-sector channels, it also depends heavily on China to finance its government operations.
Imagine, even for a moment, if China demanded the immediate repayment of its loans. Or unleashed its US Treasury holdings into the open market. Or stopped extending credit to Western corporations and infrastructure projects.
The consequences would be swift and seismic – US borrowing costs would spike, global investors would panic, financial markets would shake violently, the dollar would face unprecedented pressure, corporations reliant on Chinese credit would be exposed, and the global economy — built on delicate interdependence — would wobble to its core.
China has never used these levers to destabilise others, despite having the capacity to do so. But the mere fact that such leverage exists speaks volumes about the true balance of global economic power.
Who really depends on whom? The West may call China a “threat”, a “competitor”, or a “predatory lender”.
But the numbers tell an unambiguous story:
The richest nations borrow from China;
The biggest corporations rely on Chinese credit;
Global consumers depend on Chinese manufacturing;
The US government itself is financed, in part, with Chinese savings.
And if China ever chose to pull back its loans, halt its credit lines, or liquidate its Treasury holdings, the world’s largest economy would face a crisis of historic proportion.
In truth, the question is no longer whether China is important to the world economy.
The real question is whether the world economy can survive without China.
And the answer, now clearer than ever, is NO.
