The missiles may be flying thousands of miles away in the Persian Gulf, but their economic shockwaves have reached us. Yesterday morning, drivers in The Gambia woke up to bad news. Overnight, petrol jumped from D82.50 to D98.00 per litre, an increase of D15.50, representing a staggering 18.79% rise, while diesel has gone from D84.60 to D95.00 per litre, an increase of D10.40, representing a 12.29% rise.
The reason is the on-going geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States which have shaken global energy markets. At the centre of these tensions is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most strategic oil transit routes in the world, through which a significant portion of global crude oil supply passes. Historically, instability in that region leads to a surge in global crude oil prices.
When petrol prices increase, the impact spreads rapidly across the system. Transportation costs rise. Food distribution becomes more expensive. Manufacturing costs increase. Construction logistics become costlier. As expected, businesses transfer these costs to consumers. The result is a nationwide inflation ripple effect that affects everything from food prices to construction materials. Our government is going to face a hard choice: absorb the cost through subsidies and widen fiscal deficits, or pass it to consumers and risk inflation and protests.
And it’s not only going to be about fuel. The war has compounded a fertilizer crunch that began with earlier supply chain disruptions. Iran is a significant producer of urea and other nitrogen-based fertilisers, and uncertainty around its exports has kept global prices volatile. African farmers like in The Gambia, who already pay some of the highest fertiliser prices in the world due to transport costs, are going to face a difficult planting season. Lower fertiliser use will certainly threaten yields for groundnuts, rice, and vegetables — staples across the country.
Many African currencies have weakened as investors seek safe havens during conflict. A stronger US dollar makes dollar-denominated debt more expensive to service, a serious concern for countries that borrowed heavily in external markets over the past decade. The Gambia like other countries have navigated debt distress in recent years; added pressure from import bills and currency depreciation would narrow their policy spaces.
For successive quarters, the Central Bank of The Gambia has been cutting interest rates but the effects of this war threatens to upend those gains and might force them to respond with interest rate hikes to tame inflation and defend currencies, but higher rates would slow investment and job creation.
Also conflict in the Gulf raises war-risk insurance premiums for vessels across the region. Shipping companies reroute or slow down, and those costs filter into import prices for machinery, medicines, and consumer goods.
The war in Iran is a reminder that Africa’s economic fate is tied to global stability. Short-term responses — targeted subsidies, social cash transfers, and monetary tightening — are necessary but insufficient. The longer-term imperative is resilience: investing in renewable energy to reduce fuel import dependence, expanding fertiliser production on the continent, improving transport corridors to lower logistics costs, and strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation to reduce exposure to external shocks.
