By Ibrahim Dampha,
London School of Economics
& Political Science- LSE
Ahead of the 2021 presidential election, I was among the first to publicly question the accuracy of Ceprass’s projections. Yet my scepticism shifted when one of their researchers personally explained the methodology, highlighting both its strengths and its inherent limitations. Though I remained unconvinced at the time that the UDP could lose, the eventual results proved me wrong and forced me to accept an uncomfortable truth. The truth that data-driven research, if rigorously conducted, can reveal electoral realities that partisanship blinds us to.
I, like many others, invested emotionally and materially in that election. I even purchased a flight ticket to return home to campaign and vote for our Ousainu Darboe and UDP. But our collective wish was thwarted as the majority of Gambians, motivated less by policy and more by personal aversions to Darboe, cast their votes for Adama Barrow. The outcome was sobering because despite Darboe’s stature we could not win. Sadly, even the self-professed ideologues from PDOIS, as well as portions of Kandeh’s supporters, tilted towards Barrow. The arithmetic was unambiguous as Barrow clearly secured victory not simply through incumbency, but by absorbing a fragmented opposition. Gambians themselves chose the leader they preferred, and we paid dearly for ignoring the signals. Are we ready to ignore the signals again? I’m not sure I am!
This lesson must be etched into the strategic thinking of every opposition party and its sympathisers, because dismissing credible polling data out of partisan bias only leads to the bitterness of defeat.
Fast forward to the West Coast Region chairmanship election: – Ceprass initially reported 48% undecided voters, 21% support for Seedy Ceesay, and 19% for Yanks Darboe. At first glance, this seemed inconclusive. But political campaigns are about persuasion and Yanks, running on a progressive, issue-based campaign, successfully converted a substantial portion of those undecided voters. His final tally of 50.3% of the total vote was perfectly consistent with the CEPRASS forecast. Seedy, by contrast, only expanded marginally, ending with 33.8%. The poll’s predictive value was vindicated.
Now, consider the larger picture! Talib Bensouda’s record in the Kanifing Municipality and his victory over Barrow’s entire state-backed machinery in the Kanifing Municipality speaks for itself. Despite millions of dalasis poured into the campaign by the NPP, Talib prevailed. This was not merely a UDP triumph, it was a decisive signal from undecided voters who trusted his competence, his youth, and his forward-looking policies over Barrow’s incumbency.
Equally telling is the ongoing debate within the UDP itself. While Darboe remains loved, respected, even revered, there still is a growing recognition that his candidacy may no longer represent the electorate’s preference. The electorate has spoken before as they chose Barrow over Darboe, and unless we recalibrate, history risks repeating itself. But in Talib, the opposition has a unifying candidate, one who bridges generational divides, appeals to the undecided, and neutralises Barrow’s advantage.
The data, the trends, and the logic converge on one conclusive reality: Talib Bensouda is the viable alternative for 2026!
Concerned Gambians, this is our moment of reckoning. We cannot allow ego or factional loyalties to derail the pursuit of change. We must rally behind a candidate capable of uniting disparate opposition forces under a common Gambian project. For the first time since 2016, the possibility of a broad-based coalition victory is within reach if we act rationally and decisively.
We may not agree on everything, but we all desire a better Gambia. 2026 offers us the opportunity to present a credible alternative, restore national dignity, and remove Barrow through the ballot box.
Let us seize this moment. Let us unite behind Talib Bensouda.
The Gambia deserves better, and the time is now.
