By Rtd Lt Colonel Samsudeen Sarr
Ivory Coast is once again at a dangerous precipice. President Alassane Ouattara’s unrelenting ambition to seek a fourth term despite widespread condemnation and unmistakable constitutional barriers is fast pushing the country toward instability. His disqualification of major opposition figures on flimsy legal technicalities not only stifles democracy but risks plunging the nation into another cycle of unrest.
Ecowas, the African Union, and the United Nations must urgently intervene to prevent another electoral crisis in West Africa. But equally important is the need for the Ivorian opposition to reconsider its strategy. Resistance is warranted, but confrontation may not be the best path forward. There is a compelling alternative rooted in pragmatism and strategic compromise. Why not emulate what Senegal’s PASTEF party achieved in 2024?
Faced with similar suppression under President Macky Sall who used judicial manoeuvres to bar opposition leader Ousmane Sonko from contesting, PASTEF made a decisive and disciplined decision. Rather than plunging the country into civil strife, the party endorsed Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a relatively lesser-known but trusted figure. The Senegalese people, tired of autocratic manipulation, rallied behind him and ousted the ruling elite through the ballot box. Today, Senegal is being governed with a renewed commitment to transparency, justice, and postcolonial transformation.
Three of the most prominent opposition leaders, Laurent Gbagbo, Tidjane Thiam (Cham), and Charles Blé Goudé, have all been disqualified, each for reasons that reek more of political sabotage than legal merit. Gbagbo, despite being acquitted by the International Criminal Court, remains barred due to a domestic conviction. Thiam, stripped from the race over dual nationality technicalities, renounced his French citizenship in good faith, but was still elbowed out. Charles Blé Goudé, too, has been blocked over lingering legal judgements.
With Ouattara’s regime controlling the judiciary, challenging these disqualifications may be a futile exercise. But rather than retreating or escalating tensions, the opposition can outmanoeuvre the regime by uniting behind a single, uncompromised candidate, one that Ouattara cannot so easily disqualify. This requires selflessness, strategic thinking, and a willingness to break the long-standing political pattern in mainly Francophone Africa, where party founders refuse to yield leadership even when circumstances demand it.
Admittedly, these leaders don’t all share the same ideology. Their paths to power are marked by distinct political journeys and differing visions for Ivory Coast. But in this moment, there is one overarching objective that should transcend all else; that is to end the authoritarian drift and restore democratic integrity to the Ivorian political process.
If Gbagbo, Thiam, and Blé Goudé were to jointly endorse a fresh, trustworthy face, someone with a clean legal slate and a clear national agenda, it could galvanise the country in an unprecedented way. Such a move would also deny President Ouattara the political chaos he may be banking on to justify retaining power by any means necessary.
Without doubt, Ouattara’s insistence on running for a fourth term is not simply a political ambition, it is a deliberate provocation. It reflects the same cult-of-personality leadership plaguing nations like Cameroon, where President Paul Biya has ruled for over 40 years, defying age, reason, and democratic logic. This toxic brand of leadership only survives when opposition forces remain fragmented and driven by ego rather than collective vision.
By proposing this non-confrontational route, I am not suggesting that the Ivorian opposition surrender. Far from it, I am urging them to be tactical and channel the people’s frustration into a movement with a clear, unifying goal. Refusing to adjust their approach would amount to playing into Ouattara’s hands, aligning his intransigence with theirs, and pushing the country toward another round of conflict that Ivorians can ill afford.
ECOWAS, for its part, must move beyond rhetoric. It has shown itself capable of responding firmly to military takeovers, but it must also apply equal scrutiny and sanctions against civilian leaders who manipulate constitutional frameworks to extend their mandates. Democracy isn’t only undermined at gunpoint; it’s equally threatened by ballot-rigging, judicial manipulation, and unconstitutional term extensions.
Engagement must begin now. Ecowas should urgently dispatch a high-level mission to Abidjan to meet all stakeholders, particularly those disqualified from the race and propose a roadmap for an inclusive electoral process. The bloc must demand credible reforms, ensure neutrality of the judiciary and electoral commission, and facilitate a platform for dialogue among the parties.
To Ivorians themselves, I urge calm but determined civic engagement. Do not give in to provocations designed to incite violence. Demand democracy, but do so with wisdom. If your leaders can rise above self-interest and unite behind a candidate, the change you seek is not just possible but inevitable.
The road ahead is difficult, but not without precedent. Senegal showed us the way. Let Ivory Coast be next.
