By Lamin Sillah
Overview
True sovereignty is impossible without economic independence. For The Gambia, the most significant national security threat is not just the absence of oil production or industrial capacity — it is the systematic mortgaging of critical resources, the dependency on foreign aid, and the strangulation of the Dalasi.
The country’s economy remains aid-driven, import-dependent, and externally controlled. Instead of mobilising domestic capital and citizen investment, the state repeatedly turns to foreign concessions, often on terms that favour outsiders for decades. This is not just economics; it is sovereignty leakage.
Current realities
1. Foreign aid dependence
A significant share of the national budget is donor-funded.
EU migration funds, IMF and World Bank loans, and bilateral aid shape domestic policy priorities.
If donors suspend support, fiscal collapse looms.
2. Mortgaged concessions
The Port of Banjul deal grants Turkey’s Albayrak Group 80% equity and 80% profit share for 30 years.
Offshore oil contracts remain opaque, with rumours of boundary re-drawings and unfair concessions.
Contracts in the energy, fisheries, and sand/minerals sectors are signed without transparency or parliamentary scrutiny.
3. Dalasi strangulation
Import dependence keeps the Dalasi under constant pressure.
Senegalese and foreign dominance in cross-border trade drains revenues.
Remittances, while significant, are fragile and tied to external shocks.
4. Industrialisation & refining gap
No refineries, no large-scale processing plants, and minimal recycling capacity.
Raw materials (fish, sand, groundnuts) are exported unprocessed, while imports flood the ports.
Ports are clogged with second-hand goods instead of high-value exports.
Risks
1. Fiscal fragility
Over-reliance on aid undermines sovereignty.
Donor conditions can dictate migration, trade, and internal security policy.
2. Revenue drain
Most profits from ports, fisheries, and energy concessions flow abroad.
The Dalasi loses foreign exchange, creating inflation and instability.|
3. Food & livelihood security
Fisheries depletion, unregulated sand mining, and agricultural neglect reduce local resilience.
Crime, migration, and unemployment rise when livelihoods collapse.
4. Industrial absence
The Gambia will always be a dumping ground for foreign goods without local refining and processing.
Lost opportunity to create jobs, exports, and currency stability.
Impact assessment
Likelihood
High – entrenched structural dependency.
Impact
Severe – undermines sovereignty and long-term growth.
Overall risk: Severe
Opportunities for domestic resource mobilisation (DRM)
1. Infrastructure & sovereign bonds
Launch Gambian Infrastructure Bonds for ferries, ports, and energy projects.
Citizens and diaspora invest, repaid from ticket sales, port fees, or electricity revenues.
Reduces reliance on predatory foreign concessions.
2. Public IPOs of state enterprises
Convert SOEs (Ferries, GPA, NAWEC) into publicly listed companies where Gambians can buy shares.
Creates ownership, transparency, and domestic accountability.
3. Diaspora bonds
Target Gambians abroad, leveraging remittances into structured investment for energy, housing, and industry.
Nigeria and Ethiopia have used this model successfully.
4. Industrialisation & recycling
Develop modular refineries for fuel blending, agro-processing hubs, and recycling plants.
Shift from raw exports to processed exports to generate jobs and foreign exchange.
Recommendations
Aid transition strategy
More substantial tax collection and domestic bond financing will reduce foreign aid reliance by 20% in five years.
Contract transparency
Publish all concession agreements online; renegotiate terms that excessively mortgage sovereignty.
Dalasi stabilisation
Strengthen exports through fisheries protection, agro-processing, and tourism; regulate imports to reduce dependency.
Industrial policy
Launch a National Industrialisation Plan 2025–2035 with transparent processing, refining, and recycling targets.
Citizen participation
Ensure Gambians — not foreigners — become primary shareholders in national infrastructure.
Strategic outlook (2025–2030)
Reform path
Domestic capital mobilisation through bonds, IPOs, and diaspora investment reduces aid reliance and stabilises the Dalasi. Industrialisation creates jobs and exports.
Stagnation path
Continued dependence on aid and predatory concessions leaves the economy fragile, donor-controlled, and externally dictated.
Collapse path: Dalasi collapses, remittances falter, and sovereignty is mortgaged for generations through opaque deals.
