By Mohammed Jallow
The Gambia, a small but historically resilient West African nation, stands at a critical crossroads in its political journey. Since the ousting of Yahya Jammeh in 2017, many citizens and observers hoped the country would emerge as a model of democratic rebirth in post-authoritarian Africa. Yet, almost a decade into this “New Gambia,” the reality is far more complex riddled with unfinished reforms, transactional politics, and a society still waiting to see the dividends of democracy.To understand The Gambia’s political atmosphere today, one must look at both its internal contradictions and global comparisons.
Democratic transition or cosmetic change
The Gambia’s 2016 electoral shift was globally celebrated likened to South Africa’s post-apartheid hope in 1994 or Liberia’s 2005 election of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. But while countries like Ghana transitioned from military to multiparty rule and sustained it through deep institutional reforms, The Gambia has stagnated.
Despite the exit of a dictator, many key structures of the old regime, the politicised civil service, security sector impunity, and executive overreach remain intact. The promised constitutional reform to replace the outdated 1997 Constitution failed in 2020 due to political infighting, revealing the fragility of elite consensus.
Personality over policy politics
President Adama Barrow’s leadership has shown tendencies similar to what is often seen in post-liberation governments where revolutionary legitimacy gives way to populism and patronage. Much like Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe or Uganda under Museveni, The Gambia is witnessing the personalisation of power, albeit with less intensity.
Barrow’s formation of the National People’s Party (NPP) after falling out with his original coalition allies mirrors patterns seen in countries like Kenya, where leaders frequently change political banners but rarely ideological direction. The politics is less about programmatic visions and more about ethnic arithmetic, loyalty networks, and access to state resources.
Civil society and the youth: Agents of hope amid cynicism
One of the most vibrant forces in The Gambia today is its youthful population and civil society. Social media activism, grassroots organising, and independent journalism have flourished, holding the state accountable in ways that rival what we see in Tunisia or Nigeria’s #EndSARS movement. However, these voices remain largely outside formal politics.
The disillusionment with traditional political elites has created a vacuum. Like in Haiti or Lebanon, many young people express despair, choosing to migrate (“the Backway”) or disengage. The lack of clear political alternatives only fuels the cycle of disillusionment.
Justice delayed is justice denied
The Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC) provided a unique opportunity to cleanse the nation’s soul. But nearly four years since its conclusion, justice has not been served. Alleged human rights abusers still roam free or hold office, and victims await reparations. Compare this to Rwanda’s post-genocide gacaca courts or South Africa’s TRC, which, while imperfect, had more decisive follow-up actions.
Justice in The Gambia is increasingly seen not as a tool of reconciliation but as a political weapon applied selectively, if at all.
A Fragile pace and economic frustration
Unlike Mali or Burkina Faso, The Gambia has avoided political violence or jihadist spillover a credit to its communal resilience. However, peace without justice and prosperity is unsustainable. The economic frustrations high youth unemployment, inflation, dependence on remittances are eroding public trust. This is not unlike the Arab Spring context, where years of stagnation eventually sparked revolt.
Conclusion: Lessons and warnings
The Gambia’s political atmosphere is one of uneasy calm, held together by civic hope and elite inertia. The country has avoided collapse but also failed to live up to its democratic promise. Like many post-authoritarian societies from Myanmar to Sudan the real danger lies in confusing electoral rituals with genuine democratic transformation.
If reforms continue to be delayed, if the youth continue to be ignored, and if political leaders place loyalty above legacy, The Gambia risks becoming yet another cautionary tale of a country that won freedom but not the future.
Mohammed Jallow is a civic leader and development advocate based in The Gambia. He writes on democracy, governance, and youth empowerment in West Africa.
