By Yobba Baldeh
As I reflect on the state of Gambian politics having followed popular media platforms- Kerr Fatou, Fatu Network, Star FM and listening to political leaders, MPs, party supporters, speaking to my fellow academics, and diplomats, I have found it hard to ignore the discourse on the mushrooming of registered political parties in the country. Today, The Gambia boasts a plethora of political groups, each claiming to represent the interests of the people. But despite the ever-expanding list of parties, the political landscape reveals a stark reality: there are only two genuine contenders for leadership in The Gambia—the United Democratic Party (UDP) and the People’s Democratic Organisation for Independence and Socialism (PDOIS). The rest of the political actors seem to be fringe players, destined to be swallowed by either the National People’s Party (NPP) or UDP as political tides ebb and flow.
The explosion of parties gives the illusion of a vibrant multi-party democracy, but in practice, most of these groups are neither built to last nor poised to mount serious challenges. Instead, they serve as secondary players, often entering coalitions or dissolving into larger, more established entities like the UDP or NPP when election cycles draw near. These parties exist, but their presence is largely ornamental. This tendency points to the emerging dominance of two primary political forces in the country- NPP and UDP. While PDOIS maintains its integrity and a solid ideological foundation, many other smaller parties’ risks being sidelined or absorbed by the larger political machinery.
The future of the NPP seems to hinge on one man—President Adama Barrow. Should the new draft constitution pass, imposing a two-term limit on the presidency, the NPP will face a leadership vacuum after Barrow’s departure, and political infighting within the party could ultimately lead to its collapse – if Barrow fails to create an exit route for his succession. Thus, the political climate raises serious questions on the evolving political dynamics, the dangers facing NPP, and the inevitability of a two-party system dominated by UDP and PDOIS.
At first glance, The Gambia’s political scene appears vibrant. With over seven registered political parties, citizens might assume they have a wealth of options. From the Gambia Democratic Congress (GDC) to the Citizens’ Alliance (CA), it seems that the Gambian electorate is spoilt for choice. However, a closer look at the electoral and political reality reveals that most of these parties are either too small or too fragmented to meaningfully impact national politics.
Smaller parties like GDC and CA, NRP, GMC while occasionally gaining traction in local elections, have largely failed to establish themselves as serious contenders on the national stage. Many of these parties rely on narrow constituencies and lack the financial backing, organizational structure, or national appeal necessary to compete with the more established giants like UDP and NPP. While they may represent niche interests or appeal to certain demographics, they do not have the infrastructure, grassroots support, or political vision to govern the country.
On the other hand, while Essa Faal’s Sobeya represents a fresh voice recently, the longer-term reality suggests that it may simply become another fringe political player destined to be absorbed by the larger parties, like the United Democratic Party (UDP) or National People’s Party (NPP), or vanish altogether. Political success in The Gambia, as in many African countries, relies heavily on grassroots mobilization, not just on a candidate’s professional or international credentials. Faal’s impressive work at the ICC, while an asset in terms of reputation, is unlikely to translate into the local political capital necessary to win elections. The electorate in The Gambia is driven more by personal connections, loyalty, and a deep history with the political parties they support. Without a longstanding presence on the ground, Sobeya may struggle to gain a meaningful foothold. So, Essa Faal has a choice either to leave his Job at the ICC or go back to Gambia if he wants to be a formidable candidate for the Highest office.
When elections approach, many of these smaller parties will seek alliances or coalitions with the larger players, usually with the aim of securing a seat at the table in exchange for their limited support. This trend is likely to continue, as most of these fringe players will ultimately be absorbed into either UDP or NPP, further consolidating the two-party dominance. The truth is that The Gambia, despite its multitude of political groups, is heading toward a system where only two parties—the UDP and PDOIS—are capable of leading.
Originally emerging as an alternative to the UDP, Barrow’s former party, the NPP quickly positioned itself as the ruling party, taking advantage of Barrow’s incumbency and the fragmented nature of the opposition. The NPP has since become a powerful political force, winning significant support in both national and local elections as well as senior political figures, the likes of Momodou Sabally crossing carpeting to NPP.
While, the NPP’s success is largely tied to Barrow’s personal popularity and incumbency, however, it is a party that, in many ways, lacks a strong ideological foundation and a clearly defined long-term vision beyond the immediate political needs of the president. Unlike PDOIS, which has built its brand on ideological consistency and a commitment to socialist principles, or UDP, although with no definitive political ideological but has decades of experience as a leading political force, NPP is still in its infancy, relying heavily on Barrow’s leadership.
The potential for political instability within NPP becomes even more apparent when we consider the possibility of a two-term presidential limit. If the new draft constitution is passed, imposing such a restriction, Barrow will have to leave office after two terms. When that happens, the NPP could face a leadership crisis. As it stands, there are no obvious candidates within the party who could take over the mantle and effectively lead the country.
The NPP’s hierarchical structure is centred around Barrow, and without him, the party may struggle to maintain unity. Political infighting, jockeying for power, and factionalism could quickly erode the party’s strength, leading to its decline. This scenario is not uncommon in African politics, where ruling parties often face disintegration after the departure of a strong leader. Without Barrow, the NPP could find itself in a position where it is no longer able to compete with the more established UDP.
In contrast to NPP’s reliance on Barrow, the UDP has long been a dominant force in Gambian politics, with deep roots in the country’s political history. Under the leadership of Ousainu Darboe, the party has maintained its relevance despite numerous challenges, including the 22-year rule of former President Yahya Jammeh and Barrow’s defection to form NPP. The UDP’s enduring strength lies in its organizational capacity, its broad base of support across the country, and its clear political vision.
While Darboe remains the face of the party, UDP has also managed to cultivate a sense of continuity and stability within its ranks. Unlike NPP, which faces an uncertain future without Barrow, the UDP is well-positioned to remain a key player in Gambian politics for years to come. Its ability to adapt and evolve in response to changing political dynamics is a testament to the party’s resilience.
More importantly, UDP is the only party with a realistic chance of challenging NPP for control of the government. If Barrow’s two-term limit becomes a reality and internal strife weakens NPP, UDP will be in a prime position to return to power, if the surging infighting and post Darboe is tactfully laid out. The party’s grassroots support, organizational capacity, and political experience make it a formidable force that cannot be easily dismissed. However, infighting in the post Darboe if not addressed soon may also disintegrate the party, and the smaller parties ending up being absorbed by an existing larger party that exist at that current time.
While much of the political conversation focuses on the UDP and NPP, it is essential to recognise the unique role played by PDOIS in Gambian politics. PDOIS, under the leadership of Halifa Sallah, has long been regarded as the moral compass of the country’s political landscape. The party has consistently advocated for transparency, accountability, and social justice, maintaining its ideological purity even when faced with the practical realities of electoral politics.
However, PDOIS’s strength lies more in its ability to influence public discourse than in its capacity to govern. Historically, the party has struggled to win significant electoral victories, and it has often taken on the role of a political watchdog rather than a governing party. Despite this, PDOIS remains a crucial player in Gambian politics, providing an alternative vision and keeping the larger parties in check.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, PDOIS is likely to remain as a significant ideological force, shaping debates and policies from the outside. However, its role as a governing party remains limited, and it is unlikely to challenge UDP or NPP for control of the government. Instead, PDOIS will continue to play the role of a principled opposition, ensuring that the larger parties do not stray too far from the values of democracy and justice.
The future of Gambian politics is likely to see a consolidation of power between two main parties: UDP and NPP, or some version of it. As the smaller fringe parties are absorbed or sidelined, the political landscape will become increasingly polarized between these two forces. However, as mentioned earlier, the longevity of NPP and UDP is far from guaranteed, especially in a post-Barrow era and likewise, post Darboe era.
The potential for political infighting within NPP could lead to its eventual collapse, paving the way for UDP to return to power. If Barrow’s leadership falters or if the new draft constitution limits his time in office, NPP’s internal divisions could become its undoing. This scenario would likely result in a two-party system where UDP is the dominant force, if the UDP maintains its resilience and keeps its house in order, and PDOIS continues to play its traditional role as a principled opposition.
The illusion of a multiparty democracy in The Gambia is just that—an illusion. In reality, only two genuine parties have the organisational capacity, political vision, and public support necessary to lead the country. The rest will remain fringe players, destined to be absorbed by larger forces as the political landscape shifts. As we move forward, it is crucial for Gambians to recognize this reality and prepare for a future where UDP and PDOIS remain the key players in the nation’s politics.
