The Russia-Ukraine war needs to and can be brought to a quick end
By Katim S Touray, PhD
Phase IV: Consolidation
Phase IV of the peace process would be the consolidation of the peace between Ukraine and Russia. This phase will consist of three steps in the peace process: the deployment of peacekeeping troops, Ukraine declaring its neutrality, and Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
The seventh step in the peace process will be the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force after the ratification of the Peace Treaty by the parliaments of Russia and Ukraine. The peacekeeping force will be deployed to supervise the ceasefire and withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian forces from the DMZ and patrol the DMZ. Although the notion of having a DMZ and peacekeeping troops initially drew a lot of scorn, it is now plausible to some, as indicated by on-going talks in Europe on the issue.
In addition, a Joint Ceasefire Commission will be formed to, along the lines of the Military Armistice Commission established for the Korean War Armistice, manage the implementation of the Peace Treaty, and settle any violations of it in the DMZ. Similarly, the Joint Centre on Control and Coordination established for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, as at October 2016, helped stop 70 percent of attacks.
The eight step in the peace process will be Ukraine’s declaration of its neutrality, and for it to renounce its ambition to join Nato, as it conceded in April 2022. Although Zelenskyy has always maintained that Ukraine’s accession to Nato will guarantee its security, the reality is that Article 5 of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty obliges signatories to provide military support to another member only if they “deem” it necessary. Indeed, the very prospect of sending their own troops to Ukraine, and escalation of the conflict to a nuclear war has been enough to stop the accession of Ukraine to Nato. Besides, the US government has made it clear that Ukraine should abandon its ambition to join Nato.
The abortive negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in 2022 also called for so-called Guarantor States (Belarus, China, France, Great Britain, Russia, Türkiye, and the US) to provide a security guarantee to Ukraine to enable it give up its bid to join Nato and declare neutrality. In particular, the April 2022 draft Treaty stipulated that the Guarantor States will close Ukraine’s airspace, provide necessary weapons, and use armed forces to restore and maintain Ukraine’s security in the event. However, some have said that a security guarantee would not be effective, while others propose supporting Ukraine to maintain a position of a well-armed and independent neutrality to enable it to defend itself, like Finland did for many decades — and prospered.
The ninth step in the peace process would be for Ukraine to realign its Constitution, National Security Strategy, and Military Security Strategy with its neutrality. In particular, the 2020 amendment of the Constitution of Ukraine which committed it to membership of Nato and the EU, should be repealed to allow only for Ukraine’s membership of the EU. In contrast to the issue of Ukraine making territorial concessions, the repeal of this amendment does not require a referendum, but regular parliamentary procedure. A such, this constitutional amendment can be made by the new government and Parliament, especially if Ukrainians vote in the referendum to give up Ukraine’s bid for Nato membership.
Ukraine should also revise its 2020 National Security Strategy (NSS) and its 2021 Military Security Strategy (MSS) to conform to its status as a neutral country. One of the principles of the NSS is to develop strategic relations with the EU, Nato, and the US, and an important priority is to develop a “special partnership” with and leading to full membership of Nato. In the same vein, the MSS aims for Ukraine’s membership of Nato, and to make its defense forces capable of contributing to Nato operations. These provisions would clearly be incompatible with a status of neutrality of Ukraine, and for this reason, both the NSS and the MSS should be amended if Ukrainian voters agree to Ukraine maintaining a neutral status.
In the same vein Russia should, to reduce tension in the region, repeal its November 2024 Nuclear Doctrine which lowers the threshold for launching a nuclear attack against an adversary. Russia would also revise or repeal any other policy or law identified and agreed to in the Peace Talks to be so treated after the signing of a Peace Treaty.
The tenth step of the peace process will be the accession of Ukraine to the EU, which Russia agreed to in April 2022. Ukraine applied to join the EU in February 2022 and started accession negotiations with the EU in June 2024. Ukraine should continue on the path to accession to the EU following the successful conclusion of peace talks with Russia, and after Ukrainians vote to give up on their aspiration to join Nato. EU membership would not only firmly anchor Ukraine in the Western economic and political community, it would also provide it with, depending on the scenario, an estimated €124 billion or €101 billion from the EU’s 2021–2027 budget. This will be immensely helpful to Ukraine’s recovery effort.
Phase V: Recovery and rehabilitation
The recovery and rehabilitation phase will include lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, resource mobilization, as well as reconstruction and rehabilitation. Thus, the eleventh step in the peace process will be the lifting of sanctions on Russia, starting with a resumption of the sale of Russian gas and other energy products worldwide, as well as allowing it back to the global SWIFT financial payments system, and the global financial markets. In addition, diplomatic sanctions on Russia, as well as sanctions on foreign direct investment in Russia will be lifted, and diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Russia restored.
The twelfth step in the peace process will be to mobilise resources to help Ukraine rebuild after the devastating war with Russia. As at February 2024, Ukraine was estimated to need US$486 billion for its reconstruction after the war. For this reason, Ukraine will need a massive mobilisation of funds, similar to the Marshall Plan which provided US$13.3 billion (equivalent to US$173.8 billion in 2024) in aid to Europe following the end of World War II.
The funds can be raised from EU, the US and other Western sources such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Investment Bank (EIB), and the World Bank Group. Additional funds can be raised by negotiating with Russia for the use of its assets in Western financial institutions. Although this might be an unpalatable proposal to Russia, it would have to take some responsibility for rebuilding Ukraine which it has destroyed. Other potential sources of funds include private investors and Ukraine itself.
The thirteenth and final step in the peace process will be the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Ukraine. After three years of war, Ukraine has suffered a massive devastation of its economy, infrastructure, and environment. Thus, the agriculture sector, lost an estimated US$83 billion; about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity is either occupied by Russian forces, damaged, or destroyed over the course of 2022 and 2023. In addition, Ukraine’s water supply infrastructure, have been devasted. There were 292 attacks on 218 hospitals and clinics., and approximately 30% of Ukraine’s territory is contaminated with mines and explosives, As at October 2024, over half of housing stocks in major towns and cities had been damaged or destroyed.
Clearly, Ukraine is going to need a lot of support to help recover and build back from the devastation of its war with Russia. In a macabre way, the cost of reconstruction will be drastically reduced if Ukraine gives up territories claimed and occupied by Russia, because those are the areas that have been devasted the most by the war.
Conclusion
The Russia-Ukraine war is at a crossroad: either it is brought to a quick end with a realistic and lasting peace, or it will continue to grind on, along with the risk of escalation and a nuclear holocaust. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy has complained that the US still does not have a peace plan, although he has expressed his readiness to enter in negotiations to end the war. This proposal provides an African perspective on how to end a war with global ramifications, and hopefully, will contribute to the dialog about a way forward to bring this conflict to a sustainable and peaceful resolution.
The peace plan proposed herein might not satisfy Ukraine or Russia, although there are elements which each or both of them might accept or reject. Russia might, in the eyes of some, seem to be the winner in the proposed peace plan because it would keep Ukrainian territory, prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, and have sanctions against it lifted. However, Russia would also have to give up any hopes of ever annexing all of Ukraine, in addition to giving up financial resources to pay for the reconstruction of and reparations to Ukraine.
Although Ukraine would, under the proposed peace plan, cede some of its territory to Russia, and give up on its ambition to join Nato, all would not be lost. Thus, the proposed peace plan will enable Ukraine to survive as a viable nation, albeit with less territory. Furthermore, the proposed peace plan will provide Ukraine with lasting peace guaranteed by the international community and international law and prepare it to better defend the remainder of its territory against future attacks by Russia. The proposed peace plan would also enable Ukraine to rebuild from the devastation of this war, and provide it top-notch infrastructure, as well as a defense industry and military capabilities to defend itself in the future.
In the end, Ukrainians should take the advice of a Ukrainian man who, in November 2024, remarked on WION TV channel that “A horrible end is better than a horror without ending.” It’s a stark choice, but a choice all the same. I wish them well.
Katim S Touray, PhD is a soil scientist and international development consultant, reachable at katimstouray@yahoo.com or https://kstouray.medium.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/kstouray for more articles:
