My president,
I hate to bother you again, but I believe your advisers are doing a lot of disservice to you and the country, because they are putting you in a perilous journey that you will live to regret. At this stage, I am convinced more than ever that many of them are involved in a Kamikaze operation because they don’t have any home to return to.
I am asking you once again to abandon your political ambitions and concentrate on the reform and transitional agenda that you were elected for.
Work to help The Gambian people as there is huge amount of suffering in the country because of high cost of living, sickness and poverty.
You are obviously being distracted from delivery to people because you are concentrating your efforts to entrench and consolidate yourself in power.
Mr. President, it is going to be extremely difficult for you to win another election in The Gambia again.
Your advisers will try to convince you otherwise as they will try to bring every supporter of yours from Koina to Kartong to that Brikama rally to impress you, but the problem you have are the numbers.
I don’t live in The Gambia, but I am a keen observer of that country’s politics.
Before 2016, I was skeptical we could defeat Jammeh in an election, but all that changed for me at the beginning of 2016.
I have noticed then that Jammeh’s traditional support base among the Fulas, Wollofs and Mandinkas was crumbling thanks to the relentless efforts of the Diaspora in demystifying him, the arrival of Mamma Kandeh and the GDC, his insulting of Mandinkas and the jailing of Lawyer Darboe and colleagues.
Society can be fake and people lie, but the numbers don’t.
I am a believer in God, but I am also a believer in numbers and data. And the numbers don’t add up for you and here is why:
1. Every leader in the world going for reelection has at least 25% base in the bank.
That base will be with you even if you murder somebody at McCarthy Square, and as for you right now, you have zero base.
2. I am going to take 6% from the major three parties that contested the election in 2016 and give it to the Diaspora, who will be voting in the next election.
3. So since APRC is weak right now, I will give you 35% of their 2016 vote and that will take you to 13.3% of the national vote. The rest of the APRC vote will go to UDP, GDC and PDOIS and the rest will remain in APRC.
If APRC picks the good looking and charismatic Amul Nyassi, you will do even less. You may not even make it to second round.
4. I predict you will not get more than 25% of the 2016 Coalition vote, and that will take you to 10.25% of the national vote.
5. I will also give you 25% of the 2016 GDC results and that will garner you 4% of the national vote. Mama Kandeh did himself a lot of good in Brikama to resuscitate his party.
Before Brikama, I would have given you 50% of the GDC vote.
6. The Diaspora that I believe will represent at least 6% of the national vote in the next election and I will give you just 10% of that vote and that will represent 1% of the national vote.
I am sorry, but I have not seen a lot of support for you in the Diaspora.
Add all these numbers, you will not surpass 29% of the national vote in the next election.
Somebody will say what about when we go to second round.
A legitimate question, but here is the deal with Barrow.
Whoever didn’t vote for him in the first round is likely not to vote for him again.
And in second rounds, the passive voters will most likely stay home and the angry and active voters will be the ones heading to the polls.
It is also important to note that only the minions parties will support Barrow then, all the major parties will rally against him.
The reason why I believe this is that a perception has already been built on Barrow that he is corrupt, incompetent and a betrayer.
Makam Sowe
A Gambian in the Diaspora
