Yaya Jammeh was able to manipulate two of Gambia’s flagrantly opportunistic politicians that is Adama Barrow and Mama Kandeh into sharing the spoils from the dismembered APRC between the NPP and GDC, effectively limiting their ability and options should either of the two leading presidential candidates win on December 4th.
If Barrow or Darboe wins, unless either wins by a majority, he’d need to build an alliance with either GDC or PDOIS or both, to minimise the likelihood of the alliance collapsing before the end of the presidential term.
What is the likelihood of the two APRC factions that found homes in NPP and GDC, burying the hatchet and joining forces under a NPP-led coalition government. Highly unlikely because, unlike the APRC-faction that supports GDC, the Seedy Njie – Fabakary Tombong Jatta APRC faction do not enjoy the endorsement of Jammeh.
If UDP wins, there is no way that either faction of the APRC will attempt to join a UDP-led government and the UDP will never accommodate any APRC faction because UDP views itself as the most victimized political party by the 22-year brutal rule of Jammeh’s APRC.
The Gambia finds itself in this very bad place because of Adama Barrow and Mama Kandeh were desperately courting APRC support. Realising the predicament of the two politicians, Jammeh played these two desperate politicians against each other to the disadvantage of their respective political parties i.e. NPP and GDC.
Unfortunately, the damage extends beyond the partisan political divide to threaten the unity and cohesion of The Gambia by legitimising an exiled ex-dictator. The NPP and GDC provided the platform and communication facilities for Jammeh to resume spreading his divisive politics after a five-year absence.
Instead of isolating Jammeh, these two political parties, in their moments of desperation, decided to raise him from the dead, politically speaking, by making him politically relevant again in the life of a country that is tethering on the borders of being a failed state.