Opinion poll reveals NPP likely to win election


By Aisha Tamba

A recent survey conducted by the Center for Policy, Research and Strategic Studies, CepRass, has revealed that the National Peoples Party is likely to win the December presidential election.

This first opinion poll ahead of the election used telephone to call 14,191 respondents from 969 households in 8 local government areas (LGAs) within 48 districts in The Gambia.


According to the survey, even though there is still a large pool of undecided voters (40%), the majority of the 60% decided voters said NPP is likely to win followed by UDP, APRC, and GDC.

The researchers also said respondents were asked which party they intend to vote for; 40% undecided, 29% intended to vote for NPP, UDP 13%, APRC 8%, GDC 5%, PDOIS 4%, CA 1%, NRP 1%, GMC 1% and others 1%.

“In addition, the undecided voters are the majority in all regions except for NPP stronghold areas of URR and CRR north, while NPP outperforms UDP- the largest opposition party – in all among decided voters. And the results for ‘like to win’ follow similar pattern with the results for ‘intention to vote’. Moreover, the profile of the undecided voters indicates that educational status is not a key characteristic of undecided voters,” the report said.

The survey said 63% of the electorate consider that party manifestos are the most important factors to consider when looking for a candidate to support while only 23% consider that the education of the party leader is more important.

“The most important issues any new government should address are: youth unemployment; agriculture; and security. The majority of the electorate are of the view that the chances of a peaceful election are high- between 75 and 100% for half of the respondents, 50 to 75% for a third of the respondents,” the report said.

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