By Omar Bah
At least 59 percent of Gambians have expressed the view that the main opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) leader Ousainu Darboe should not contest in the 2026 Presidential Election, according to recent opinion polls by CepRass in collaboration with Gambia Participates.
The survey indicated that only 27 percent of the respondents said “Yes” while 14 percent said they were unsure.
Breakdown
In Basse, a majority of respondents (52%) supported Darboe’s candidacy—the highest “Yes” rate across all Local Government Areas—while only 23% opposed it. Mansakonko also registered relatively strong support, with 43% in favour and 31% opposed. Conversely, in Kanifing, over half of respondents (51%) said Darboe should not run, the highest level of opposition recorded, with only 29% supporting him. In Janjanbureh, (35% “No” vs 31% “Yes”) and Kerewan (35% “No” vs 36% “Yes”) displayed a near-even split, suggesting these areas are more politically divided on the matter.
Meanwhile, in Banjul, 43% of respondents were “Not Sure” whether Darboe should contest—an indication that a significant share of the electorate in the capital has yet to form a clear opinion. Similar patterns of indecision are visible in Brikama (43% “Not Sure”) and Kuntaur (41% “Not Sure”), pointing to the possibility that future political campaigns could influence these undecided voters.
According to the survey, these findings suggest that while Darboe retains notable pockets of strong support, particularly in Basse and Mansakonko, his potential candidacy faces substantial opposition in key urban centres like Kanifing, as well as significant uncertainty in several regions.
Age category
The age-based analysis of whether Ousainu Darboe should contest the 2026 presidential election shows that opposition is strongest among younger and middle-aged groups. Among voters aged 25–34, as many as 20% said he should not contest, the highest level of rejection across age groups. Similarly, 15% of those aged 35–44 also oppose his candidacy.
It added that younger voters aged 18–24 show relatively lower opposition (8%), but they also expressed very limited support, with just 2% in favour and 2% undecided.
“Support for Darboe is generally weak across all age groups, never rising above single digits. The 35–44 age group offers him slightly more encouragement, with 9% support, while the 55+ group shows only 5% support. Meanwhile, undecided levels remain modest (between 2–5%) in all categories,” it stated.
Gender
Among male respondents, a striking 38% said Darboe should not run, compared to only 12% who support his candidacy and another 12% undecided. This reflects a clear lack of enthusiasm from men for his potential candidacy.
For female respondents, opposition is lower but still significant, with 22% saying Darboe should not contest. Meanwhile, 7% of women support him and 8% remain undecided.
The “No” responses dominate across most Local Government Areas (LGAs0, with particularly high opposition in Banjul (41%), Basse (38%), Brikama (39%), and Kuntaur (39%). The undecided voters range from 20% in Janjanbureh and Kanifing to 40% in Basse, indicating pockets where opinions may still be shaped before the election.
Succession
The survey results on the UDP leadership succession indicate a clear preference among respondents for Talib Bensouda as the most suitable candidate to replace Ousainu Darboe as the UDP’s presidential flagbearer in 2026. Overall, 44% of respondents selected Bensouda, positioning him well ahead of other contenders. A significant portion of respondents, however, remain uncertain, with 35% saying they “don’t know” who should succeed Darboe, highlighting an important element of indecision within the electorate.
Other figures mentioned in the polls garnered far lower support: Yankuba Darboe received 13% endorsement, Rohey Malick Lowe 5%, and other candidates collectively 3%.
Banjul displayed overwhelming support for Bensouda (58%), with almost no backing for other named contenders. In contrast, Kanifing showed the highest proportion of “Other” responses (38%), suggesting a local appetite for alternatives beyond the listed candidates.
