By Rtd Lt Colonel Samsudeen Sarr,
Since the eruption of the Middle East war on 28th February, 2026, I, like millions of politically attentive observers around the world, have been following developments with relentless interest. Every missile strike, every diplomatic statement, and every whispered rumour emerging from the fog of war now travels instantly across the digital universe. In the age of social media, war no longer unfolds only on the battlefield but on phone screens across the globe.
It was on such a screen that I encountered a claim that briefly jolted my attention.
While scrolling through online commentary about the war, I came across a message circulating under the pseudonym “MouridDentist L’Optimiste”. The message alleged that Iran’s foreign minister had issued a stern warning to Senegal’s president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, after Dakar reportedly condemned Iranian strikes on American military installations in the Middle East.
The alleged statement attributed to Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was dramatic enough to make any reader pause. According to the claim, Iran would not hesitate to target American military bases in Senegal if Dakar aligned itself with what Tehran described as the “aggressor’s camp”.
If true, such rhetoric would represent a remarkable escalation, dragging Senegal, thousands of kilometres away from the Middle East battlefield, into the psychological theatre of a global conflict.
My first instinct, however, was scepticism.
Wars are fertile breeding grounds for rumours. False narratives often travel faster than verified information, particularly when geopolitical tensions are high. A closer examination quickly revealed that the supposed Iranian warning lacks credible confirmation. While President Bassirou Diomaye Faye reportedly criticised Iranian actions and expressed solidarity with certain Gulf States, there is no reliable evidence that Iran’s foreign minister ever issued the threatening statement circulating online.
Yet ironically, that rumour led me to discover something potentially more significant than any imagined diplomatic quarrel between Tehran and Dakar.
It led me to whispers of a political storm quietly gathering within Senegal itself.
Across Senegalese podcasts, political forums, and activist networks, speculation is mounting that a serious rupture may be developing within the ruling African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (Pastef) movement.
For the past two years, the partnership between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko has been portrayed as the triumphant culmination of Senegal’s democratic renewal, a generational revolt against the old political order.
But on 7th February, President Faye reportedly convened a political gathering that observers described less as a routine meeting and more as the early formation of a new political platform, what some participants called a “Diomaye’s Coalition for President”.
During that meeting, the president suggested that his electoral victory in 2024 should not be credited solely to Pastef. Instead, he attributed it to a broader coalition that included political figures who had previously served under former president Macky Sall, among them the experienced politician Aminata “Mimi” Touré.
To seasoned observers of Senegalese politics, that statement carried considerable symbolic weight. Without the political machinery, grassroots mobilisation, and ideological energy built by Ousmane Sonko and the Pastef movement over nearly a decade, Bassirou Diomaye Faye would almost certainly never have entered the presidential palace. Sonko electrified Senegal’s youths and transformed frustration with the old political elite into a powerful national movement. Faye was widely perceived as the trusted lieutenant chosen to carry the banner when Sonko himself was prevented from contesting the election.
That delicate political equation now appears less stable. It is increasingly likely that President Faye may seek to consolidate his own independent political base, one that could include figures from the very establishment Pastef once vowed to dismantle. Some insiders speculate that such manoeuvring could eventually lead to a dramatic confrontation within Senegal’s executive leadership.
One scenario whispered in Dakar’s political circles is that President Faye could dismiss Prime Minister Sonko and replace him with a figure more aligned with his evolving coalition. Another possibility is that Sonko himself, widely regarded as the ideological engine of the Pastef revolution, may refuse to preside over a government he perceives as drifting away from the movement’s founding principles.
For now, Sonko has publicly dismissed speculation about resignation, insisting he will remain in office unless removed by the president. Nevertheless, the political atmosphere in Dakar is becoming growingly charged. For years, Sonko’s political message has revolved around dismantling what he calls Africa’s lingering “post-colonial mentality”. He repeatedly accused previous administrations, including that of Macky Sall, of maintaining political and economic arrangements that subordinated Senegalese sovereignty to foreign interests. The lightening rise of Pastef was built precisely on the promise of breaking with that system.
Hence today, some militants within the movement accuse President Faye of drifting toward the very establishment Pastef once denounced. In his Saturday remarks, he appeared to characterise his presidency less as a revolutionary change and more as a continuation of state governance, language that, to some Pastef loyalists, sounded suspiciously like the vocabulary of the old order.
Even more politically combustible are whispers that Faye may eventually pursue some form of political reconciliation with Macky Sall. If such a scenario unfolds, Senegalese politics could enter a period of dramatic realignment ahead of the 2029 presidential election. Pastef might rally behind Sonko as its ideological standard-bearer, while President Faye constructs an alternative coalition drawing from elements of the former establishment.
Power, after all, remains the most powerful magnet in politics. But for the rank-and-file militants who marched in the streets, faced arrests, and risked their freedom to bring Pastef to power, the mere idea of such a political divorce borders on betrayal.
And the consequences of such a fracture would not end at Senegal’s borders.
Here in The Gambia, many observers watched the rise of Pastef with genuine admiration. Some believed Senegal might become a laboratory for a new African political culture rooted in sovereignty, intellectual independence, and unapologetic pan-Africanism.
However, if the prospect of a Sonko-Faye rupture eventually become true, Senegal may soon confront the defining question of whether the Pastef revolution was the dawn of a new political era in West Africa, or merely another fleeting moment of hope in Africa’s long and unfinished struggle for genuine independence. Only time will tell.
Lt Colonel Samsudeen Sarr (Rtd) is a former Commander of The Gambia National Army, diplomat and author.
