It is hard to overstate the sense of shock reverberating across West Africa after attackers, in co-ordinated assaults, managed to enter Mali’s capital, Bamako, assassinate the defence minister and recapture territory in the north.
Residents in different cities across the country woke to gunfire and explosions on Saturday – attacks which an alliance of two groups – the separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the al-Qaeda-linked JNIM group – said they were behind.
The scale of the offensive and the withdrawal of Malian and Russian forces from the northern city of Kidal, now under FLA control, has fuelled doubts about the strength of the military government led by Col Assimi Goïta, who came to power in a coup in August 2020.
It has taken Goïta’s several days to make an appearance since the offensive, prompting questions about the junta’s future, as well as the role of Russian forces deployed in the Sahel to tackle the security threat.
Scenario 1: Junta stays in power and fights back. Many analysts believe this remains the most likely short-term outcome, as the military still controls major cities and towns as well as state institutions. But they say the coming days could be critical as the army launches a counter-offensive against JNIM and the FLA.
Its success or otherwise will “determine the longevity of the junta”, according to Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst at global consultancy firm Control Risks.
Three days after the offensive, the presidency’s social media accounts have posted photos of Col Goïta’s meeting with Russia’s ambassador to Mali, Igor Gromyko.
It also had photos of the coup leader visiting a hospital where those wounded in the attack are being treated.
However, he has yet to issue a statement about the situation and analysts say the death of Defence Minister Sadio Camara could weaken military co-ordination affecting a counter-offensive.
Camara’s death may also hamper the relationship with Russia, according to Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel programme at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a centre-right German think tank.
Camara was one of the most powerful figures in the ruling structure and “the main interlocutor for Moscow and the brain behind the deployment of Russian mercenaries in the Sahel”, he added.
While Malian forces say they are fighting to secure key parts of the country, it will have a struggle on its hands as the FLA has signalled ambitions south of Kidal.
“We want to take control of Gao city. All of Gao’s gates have fallen, but the camps of the army have not,” said spokesman Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane.
He told the BBC the historic city of Timbuktu was also on their radar: “It will be easy to take over once we fully control Gao and Kidal.”
