Dear Editor,
Bissau, Guinea-Bissau – As Ecowas, the West African regional bloc, grapples with the latest political turmoil in coup-prone Guinea-Bissau, a prominent analyst has warned that imposing a transitional government would only deepen the crisis, potentially leading to a regional confrontation.
Pedro Semedo, a fierce critic, calls for a “paradigm shift” in how international partners, particularly Ecowas, perceive the country’s perennial instability, noting that the root cause is not mere political infighting but the systematic capture of state institutions by organised crime networks.
The ‘Narco-State’ Thesis!
According to sources in Guinea-Bissau, the fundamental barrier in the country can be traced to the deep infiltration of the government, military, and security apparatus by groups engaged in drug trafficking, money laundering, and influence peddling.
According to diplomatic sources, recent political developments in the country, including the interruption of the electoral process, could be strategic manoeuvres designed to safeguard a criminal economy in the country that has turned into a transnational drug trafficking hub.
President Umaro Sissoko could therefore be considered as a “privileged partner” of the network, in which the military and security chiefs are deeply involved.
The case against a transitional government!
Many political analysts reject the idea of a transitional government put forward by Ecowas, arguing that such an interim body would possess only limited powers to effectively address structural problems, such as control over the armed forces, the security ecosystem, and the criminality therein.
Instead, a lasting solution lies in a profound change in the leadership of the security sector, a reform that only a legitimately elected government can implement with the necessary political mandate.
Election disputes and the call for recognition!
The latest crisis centres on the results of the parliamentary and presidential elections held on November 23.
While the National Electoral Commission, CNE, was preparing to announce the results, the military seized power and ordered the suspension of the electoral process.
Many believe that the putsch announced by Embalo was”a false coup,” which he orchestrated to prevent the release of results that would have confirmed his defeat, which the independent candidate Fernando Dias da Costa is believed to have won, according to multiple sources, including international observers.
CNE officials claimed after they were freed from detention by the military junta that they could not conclude the electoral process because armed soldiers invaded the Commission’s secretariat and carted away vital documents and equipment.
Civil society groups across Africa, including Guinea-Bissau, have urged Ecowas and the international community to recognise Fernando Dias as the President-elect, arguing that any delay or attempt to impose a transitional authority will only deepen uncertainty and chaos, given the widespread rejection of the former regime.
Ecowas under scrutiny!
Ecowas has been criticised for “a simplistic assessment” of the reality on the ground, and “a lack of clear position and firm measures.”
As it attempts to enforce its zero-tolerance policy for unconstitutional change of government, Ecowas has historically faced an uphill battle in Guinea-Bissau, a nation with a history of military interventions and coups.
The continued ambiguity in approach risks further destabilising a volatile country with “unpredictable consequences and unimaginable regional implications.”
A coordinated regional and international intervention is urgently required to directly confront the deep-seated organised crime that underpins the political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
Ansumana Manneh
