While we have still got almost two years to go before the next presidential elections, jockeying for positions within the political jigsaw puzzle has begun in earnest. We have just witnessed the commencement of the political juggling with the Gambia Moral Congress (GMC) opening the transfer window with the announcement that it has formed an alliance with the ruling NPP, and there is no doubt that it is the beginning of several such alliances before the elections.
While a closer look at the political terrain would show that the NPP has a much stronger magnate to attract the smaller parties, there are also possibilities of some of the opposition parties forming coalitions or alliances to boost their chances of dislocating the NPP.
Therefore, as we get closer to the elections, there is likely to be much juggling and cross carpeting. However, there is also the possibility of some component parties of the so-called NPP Grand Coalition pulling out, apparently because they had not gotten what they had expected. Some of them have even been publicly accusing some NPP militants of arrogance and failure to appreciate their role in the “coalition”.
However, the question that most political analysts seem to ponder is whether it is wise for President Adama Barrow to seek a third term, as being peddled by some NPP militants. Of course, it would be foolhardy to expect that most of those people would say otherwise, because their very political survival rests on President Barrow’s continuation in office and they would do whatever it takes to prevail on him to go on forever. But, is it really in his interest to go for a third term?
In the first place, there is no guarantee that President Barrow would win another election, especially considering the fact that apart from the 2021 presidential elections, the NPP lost the popular vote in all the other elections held after that. Therefore, as the possibility of getting a new constitution before the next presidential elections is very slim, and the very fact that under the 1997 Constitution it would be first-past-the-post, whoever gets more votes wins the election. It therefore means that if the trend continues, he does not seem to stand much chance of winning another election.
Also, looking at the trend of recent elections in Africa, the odds seem to be stacked against President Barrow. We have seen how the opposition had won or done quite well in recent elections in many countries, including neighbouring Senegal, Botswana, Mozambique and most recently in Ghana.
Another issue not in President Barrow’s favour, if he ever decides to go for a third term, would be his reputation among his colleagues in Ecowas, where the trend has been not to go beyond two terms. We have seen that even his friend and mentor, Macky Sall, despite all that had been said against him, stepped down at the end of his second term, so had been the case with the Ghanaian president, Nana Akufo Addo, and it is likely to be the case with many of his other colleagues in the sub-region. Therefore, it is hard to believe that President Barrow would want to be the odd man out in that equation.
It is therefore certainly in his interest to think very hard before deciding to go for another term and risk not only his reputation among his colleagues but even losing the elections and ending up “nyaka diss, nyaka lestek”. Obviously, ten years should be enough for someone who came to power on the promise of serving only three years in office.
The author is a veteran journalist and former minister of information under President Adama Barrow.
