By Sheriff Bojang Jr
Competing alliances are tearing at the fabric of the Horn, as the self declared republic sidesteps Mogadishu with a high-stakes bid with the US to officially recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state. Somaliland is charting an ambitious path to recognition and dragging the Horn of Africa into a high-stakes geopolitical battle. It is offering port access and mineral concessions to the UAE and the US in a bid to secure international legitimacy. Meanwhile, hundreds of miles to the south, Mogadishu is looking to the sea for salvation. With Türkiye as its closest ally, Somalia’s federal government in March awarded Ankara first refusal rights to explore its vast offshore oil reserves in the Somali Basin, a potentially transformative move for a country battered by insurgency, debt and political fragmentation. The result is a widening diplomatic minefield, as Somalia and Somaliland pursue diverging foreign alliances that threaten to deepen existing fault lines in the region. Ankara drills in, through Mogadishu Türkiye has long been Somalia’s closest strategic partner, combining military training, infrastructure development and political support into one of the most durable bilateral relationships on the continent. “ Türkiye’s growing influence in Somalia signals… its emergence as a balancing actor along the Red Sea-Gulf of Oman-Indian Ocean corridor With the landmark agreement granting Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) exclusive rights to explore and produce oil and gas across three Somali offshore blocks – covering more than 16,000km² – Ankara has tightened its grip, positioning itself as both Somalia’s security guarantor and future energy partner. “Türkiye’s approach is long-term, impact-oriented and deeply committed to creating meaningful change on the ground,” says Tunc Demirtaş, a foreign policy researcher at the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA). “Energy cooperation has never been pursued as a standalone agenda; rather, all bilateral initiatives are advanced in tandem with efforts to ensure security, build institutional capacity and offer people-centred assistance,” he tells The Africa Report. READ MORE Why Somalia’s oil deal with Turkiye is facing growing backlash Since 2017, Türkiye has trained nearly a third of Somalia’s national army and built Africa’s largest Turkish military base on the outskirts of Mogadishu. The energy deal now gives Ankara exclusive access to exploration rights in the Somali Basin, an agreement Ankara describes as a strategic prize. Crucially, Türkiye insists all engagements are routed through Villa Somalia. “For Türkiye, the legitimacy of any cooperation in Somalia rests on its alignment with the federal government,” Demirtaş says. But Ankara’s ambitions extend far beyond Somalia. “Türkiye’s growing influence in Somalia signals not only its expanding presence in the Horn of Africa but also its emergence as a balancing actor along the Red Sea-Gulf of Oman-Indian Ocean corridor,” says Kaan Devecioglu, coordinator of North and East African Studies at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM) in Ankara. This deep alliance with Somalia, he adds, is both a continuation of Türkiye’s Africa focused diplomacy and a projection of its global power aspirations. Somaliland bypasses the centre Somaliland, by contrast, is leveraging its political stability and Red Sea location to build a foreign policy independent of Mogadishu. In February, President Abdirahman ‘Irro’ Mohamed Abdullahi met with UAE Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in Dubai to discuss economic cooperation and regional maritime security. The UAE is Somaliland’s biggest investor. A $442m deal signed with DP World in 2016 to develop Berbera Port has expanded into a larger infrastructure corridor, including a free trade zone and logistics hub. READ MORE The Battle for Berbera: Inside the global scramble for Somaliland’s strategic Red Sea port Now, Somaliland is offering US President Donald Trump access to new mineral concessions and port facilities – including a proposed military port – in exchange for formal recognition of its independence. The proposal comes amid a growing push in Washington, particularly among Trump aligned Republicans, for the US to officially recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state. Trading with US for Somaliland’s independence In June, Congressman Scott Perry, a Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and a key Trump ally, introduced legislation calling for US recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation. The bill urges a redirection of US foreign policy to align with what Perry described as “a new, stable and self-governing partner” in a strategically critical region. “ [Somalia is] a failed country that doesn’t have a government, is drenched in crime and poverty, and is rated one of the worst in the world Tibor Nagy, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, believes the ground is shifting in Washington, giving Somaliland its best shot at international recognition. “US policy towards Somalia and Somaliland has been on autopilot, driven mostly by counterterrorism concerns rather than a holistic cost-benefit analysis,” Nagy tells The Africa Report. “That may finally be changing with Trump’s transactional approach to everything. Somaliland has so many benefits, whereas Somalia has so many drawbacks.” READ MORE Somalia courts MAGA and Musk as Somaliland recognition talk picks up In June, Trump reignited controversy over his stance on Somalia when he described the country as “a failed country that doesn’t have a government, is drenched in crime and poverty, and is rated one of the worst in the world, if it’s even rated at all.” His remarks came in response to Somali-American congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who had publicly criticised the deployment of National Guard troops in response to protests across US cities. The statement was widely condemned by Somali officials and diaspora leaders, but for Somaliland’s backers, it was a signal confirming Trump’s long-standing scepticism of the Mogadishu government and his potential openness to recalibrating US policy in favour of Somaliland. High-stakes: Extremist threat, China-Taiwan affair Such a move would not only isolate Mogadishu diplomatically, but trigger a broader regional crisis. Somalia, Djibouti and the African Union all oppose Somaliland’s unilateral recognition, while China, wary of setting a precedent for Taiwan, also voiced concerns. “Any development regarding Somaliland’s recognition or deepened engagement with the US creates winners and losers,” says Moustafa Ahmad, a Horn of Africa analyst. “Recognition will offer Somaliland’s allies – both in the region and beyond – the opportunity to do business without the interference or gatekeeping of Mogadishu.”
“A US decision to recognise Somaliland should also be interpreted within the broader strategic rivalry with China However, Ahmad warns Somalia, Djibouti and their allies might view such a shift as a direct challenge to their political and economic status quo.
“We could see the emergence of a strong coalition among these actors to prevent or disrupt Somaliland’s recognition efforts, just as we saw last year when Hargeisa signed the memorandum of understanding with Ethiopia.” Türkiye, a strong supporter of Somali unity, would likely view any recognition as a violation of international norms, particularly if tied to resource or military access.
“Such a precedent would carry enormous risks, potentially triggering similar separatist movements across the continent,” says Demirtaş, arguing it could lead to new conflicts and “open the door” for extremist groups to exploit emerging power vacuums, a scenario with implications for both regional and global stability. Devecioglu agrees but sees the geopolitical stakes as even wider.
“A US decision to recognise Somaliland should also be interpreted within the broader strategic rivalry with China,” he says. Beijing, he adds, would view such a move through the lens of Taiwan and its consequences would ripple far beyond the Horn.
