In the paper I published last week-THE UKRAINE WAR AND ITS UNPREDICTABLE RAMIFICATIONS-I discussed the probability of whether the Russians had underestimated the capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or had deliberately employed a tactic of first confirming or substantiating their long-lingering fears of a neighbor constituting an existential threat to their national security before unleashing the full force of their military might in the war.
The initial resistance of the Ukrainian forces against the invading Russians was not only impressive but by the look of the well-armed combatants effectively entrenched in fighting positions within and around city perimeters, partisan pundits couldn’t resist it but hastily and euphorically concluded that Putin would lose a humiliating defeat; while President Volodymyr Zelensky “heroically” rejected western evacuation offers in preference of better and more lethal-weapon supplies. It is however clear to me now that the Russians adopted the tactic described below.
Obviously one week into the “formidable” Ukrainian resistance the euphoria gradually declined before the inconceivable ferocity and effectiveness of the Russian forces that, to me, are applying the familiar battle plan perfected by Israel against Hamas and the Palestinian “freedom fighters”. That is to say that whenever and wherever the Arabs would fire rockets aimed at Israel, the Jewish forces will trace them through satellite and shoot back with deadly “precision” missiles, regardless of the collateral damage or the prohibited location. How many times have Israel been absolved for killing Arab children in schools, sick people in medical facilities and shopkeepers in markets centres on the excuse of “retaliating against terrorists fire”?
Critics will therefore sound hollow in condemning Russia for applying the same tactic of taking out “enemy fighting positions” concealed within civilian habitats with minimal or no consideration to morality or legality. How long ago was it to forget the pervasive inhumanity and brutality suffered by the Afghans, Iraqis and Libyans from the invasion and destruction of their countries and governments? Russia enjoys the same capability if not better than Israel to track and shoot using satellite guidance and precision which nothing can stop them from utilising.
In the tenth day of the war March, 5, 2022 the Russians are now proving unstoppable in their quest for victory ignoring all pressures and threats to immediately ceasefire and withdraw.
We are yet to see any sign of Putin standing down from the Western onslaught of economic and financial sanctions against his government and friends. I don’t also think that the new ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan will gain any headway in his warning to investigate war crimes committed by the Russians in this war. As a matter of fact, like the USA, Russians are no longer signatories to the ICC treaty neither are they nor the Ukrainians on the use of internationally banned cluster bombs in wars. It has indeed been documented that Ukraine has repeatedly used cluster bombs against pro-Russian separatists fighting in their South-Eastern Donbas Region a war that started in 2014.
Nonetheless, Russia’s seizure of the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, reported to be the largest in Europe-they will seize all fifteen in the country-coupled with their choking blockade of the southern port cities of Mariupol and Kherson while edging towards the second largest plant in a push to takeover Kyiv means that they are not interested in any Western demand for deescalation. I can’t blame Putin for his intransigence against the backdrop of the Americans and the Europeans stoking the war by encouraging young psychopathic men from Europe to voluntarily go and fight for Ukraine. Or while they continue to send more stinger, Javelin and TOW missiles to President Zelenzky’s forces. It is also on record that America has recently before the war been supplying Ukraine with sophisticated weapons costing over $1billion with a thousand US experts deployed to train them on how to effectively use them in battle. Battle against which country if not Russia?
Imagine how America would have reacted if neighbor Mexico had purchased $1billion worth of sophisticated arms from Russia and delivered by Russian military experts contracted to stay and train them on how to use them. The Soviet Union tried it in Cuba in the early 60’s which nearly started World-War Three until they had to yield to reasoning.
I honestly blame Russia for starting the war because of my aversion to any kind of military conflict; but I equally revile the Americans and Europeans for their double standard, dishonesty and appetite to escalate rather than deescalate the intensity. What is so difficult about America and the Europeans reassuring the Russians that Ukraine will not be a member of Nato, an organisation established on hostile principles against the defunct Soviet-Warsaw pact organisation?
That was exactly what Putin had asked for to stop the war instantly but which Nato or America doesn’t want to do.
In the end, I expect the Russians to win the war and install a friendlier/puppet government but might be bogged down in a protracted defensive battle against covertly sponsored Ukrainian insurgents as habitual among superpower nations throughout history.
I want to believe that even if the Ukrainian refugees should choose to return home, give peace a chance and try to adapt to the new status quo under “Russian influence”, the West will still arm and encourage troublesome fighters to sabotage the Russian success. Hilary Clinton, on whose adamancy Libya was attacked and destroyed is already lobbying for the sponsorship of insurgents in a “Russia-occupied Ukraine”. U. S. Senator Linsey Graham has also recklessly recommended the assassination of Putin.
Yes, this historic vicious circle of modern superpower nations undermining the war efforts and gains of their adversaries dates back to the Vietnam war when the Soviet Union and China helped the Vietnamese defeat America; in the Soviet-Afghan war during the 80’s America supported Bin Laden and the Mujahideen into defeating the Soviet occupiers; the persistent treachery and feud continued throughout the Iraq, Afghanistan and even Libya wars today.
In other words I believe America in collaboration with NATO will covertly equip, train and encourage Ukrainian insurgents to eventually fight and chase the Russians out of “their country”.
Whether Putin has the endurance and resources for that chaos time alone will tell.
I cannot conclude without reiterating my conviction that wars in any form or purpose are inexcusable and should never be started under any circumstances. But when will mankind be that civilized to stop wars if it remains the most profitable for the greedy and wicked?
Beyond that, we all should brace for the imminent consequences of this European war to the economies of third-world countries in particular that will soon start to hurt our pocketbooks. We have no dogs in the fight but its impact will definitely hurt us. May God bless and save us from the horrors and stupidity of wars.