By Omar Bah
In a swift reaction to the latest opinion poll on Gambia’s next elections by CepRass, which puts President Adama Barrow as the likely winner of the December presidential elections, the main opposition UDP has said only Gambian voters alone will determine the outcome of the 2026 presidential election.
The UDP reaction is among many heated debates generated across the country by the survey published yesterday.
The opinion poll positioned the ruling NPP as frontrunners while highlighting UDP’s competitiveness and a significant undecided bloc.
According to the survey, only 20% of the respondents say UDP will win while 46% tipped the ruling NPP-Grand Alliance to win.
In a statement shared with The Standard, the UDP said it has taken note of the election survey and opinion poll but its focus remains on continuing to engage Gambian voters.
“We respect the effort, process and intent behind such research, and we recognise the role that data and opinion polling play in informing public debate and political strategy. As a party that values evidence-based engagement, the UDP will carefully review the findings of the survey and use its insights to further strengthen our campaign, sharpen our messaging, and deepen our connection with voters across the country,” it noted.
The party added: “At the same time, we wish to emphasise an important democratic truth, opinion polls do not determine election outcomes, voters do. Elections are decided at polling stations, by citizens exercising their constitutional right, not by projections or survey results.”
The UDP further argued that recent history provides clear and instructive examples.
“In Malawi’s 2020 presidential election, nearly all opinion polls predicted the defeat of opposition leader Dr Lazarus Chakwera. Yet the people spoke at the ballot box, and he won decisively. Similarly, in Zambia in 2021, opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema secured a landslide victory despite prevailing polls and narratives suggesting otherwise,” it observed.
Across Africa and beyond, the UDP added, political history consistently reminds “us that polls can underestimate grassroots momentum, misread public sentiment, or fail to capture late shifts in voter behaviour.”
“The UDP therefore approaches opinion polling with both respect and perspective. We appreciate data, but we place greater confidence in the will of the Gambian people, the strength of democratic participation, and the power of ideas, organisation, and hard work. Our focus remains unchanged, engaging citizens directly, offering credible and practical solutions to national challenges, and earning the trust of voters through integrity, consistency, and service. As December approaches, we are confident that the final verdict will come not from opinion polls, but from the sovereign choice of the Gambian electorate,” the party said.
