By Musa Bassadi Jawara
The situation in the Persian Gulf is reaching a boiling point, with the US and Iran on a collision course amidst rising tensions. The deployment of two US aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford, accompanied by dozens of warships and a significant military force, has raised concerns of imminent war. The presence of Chinese and Russian naval forces in the region, reportedly supporting Iran, adds complexity to the situation.
The potential implications of conflict are far-reaching, with the Muslim observance of Ramadan hanging in the balance. Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims visiting Saudi Arabia for umrah during Ramadan could be halted, and the regional humanitarian consequences might be catastrophic.
In Gaza, Palestinians are observing Ramadan under a fragile ceasefire deal, with many expressing that the challenges of daily life and losses from the Israel-Hamas war are dampening the festive spirit. The conflict has led to widespread destruction, displacement, and economic hardship, affecting traditional Ramadan celebrations. Many mosques have been destroyed or damaged, forcing worshipers to pray in makeshift spaces or tents.
A conflict could escalate into regional war, impacting global economic stability and potentially leading to devastating consequences. As the world watches, it is crucial to acknowledge the gravity of the situation. This conflict has the potential to be one of the most catastrophic since World War 2, with civilian lives lost in horrific numbers. The global energy crisis that would ensue would be unbearable, potentially triggering a global recession of Himalayan proportions. The Gulf War of the 1990s and the Iraq War would seem like mere rehearsals in comparison.
The situation is redefining the geopolitics of the Middle East, with potential long-term implications for the region’s culture, religions, and faith. The conflict has heightened tensions between Israel and its neighbours, and the international community is closely watching the developments. The impact extends beyond the region, with global energy markets and security concerns also being affected. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil exports, is a particular point of concern.
Diplomatic efforts are underway, with indirect talks between the US and Iran making progress, but significant gaps remain. The international community is urging de-escalation, with countries like Oman, Iraq, and the EU potentially playing a role in facilitating negotiations. However, the situation is fluid, and the outcome is far from certain.
The possible outcomes range from de-escalation and limited conflict to regional escalation and humanitarian crisis. The global economic fallout could be significant, with oil price spikes and trade disruptions possible. The consequences of inaction would be dire, and it is imperative that world leaders prioritise diplomacy to prevent a catastrophe.
Conclusion
As an author who has written extensively on global conflict, particularly on African soil, in my book From Village Life in The Gambia to Global Views Washington, DC, and Beyond, I must emphasise that nothing I have written will mimic the scale, scope, nature, complexity, gravity, magnitude, and enormity of what the world is about to witness in this likely Iranian conflict. This war could be apocalyptic in nature and must not be fought. The devastating consequences would be felt globally, and it is imperative that world leaders take immediate action to prevent a catastrophe. The stakes are too high, and the potential cost in human lives, economic stability, and global security is too great to ignore. Diplomacy must prevail.
Musa Bassadi Jawara is an economist, author and a political and social commentator
