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Zelenskyy: A fool for all time President Zelenskyy has nobody to blame but himself for the prolongation of Ukraine’s war with Russia

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By Katim Seringe Touray

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Warsaw Pact (the Soviet Union-led counterweight to the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) during the Cold War), also collapsed. Nato, which thus ceased to have any credible threat, nevertheless went on to expand, and between 1999 and 2020 added 14 new member countries, including seven former members of Warsaw Pact, and three former Soviet republics.

Russia for many years protested Nato’s expansion, and warned in 2007 that it would not accept Ukraine’s membership of Nato. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin opposed Ukraine’s request in January 2008 to join Nato’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) and effectively drew a red line around Nato’s expansion to include Ukraine. Russia’s concerns fell on deaf ears, and on 24th February, 2022 Putin announced the start of a “special military operation”, thus marking the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had devastating economic, infrastructure, health, humanitarian, and environmental impacts on Ukraine. By 2024, Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 78% of its pre-invasion level, tax revenues decreased by 14.2%, and the budget deficit increased from 3.6% to 20.3% of the GDP in 2021, and 2024, respectively. The agriculture sector, the reason why Ukraine has been termed the “bread basket of the world”, lost an estimated US$83 billion; US$24.2 billion of which was due to export disruptions.

Ukraine’s infrastructure, which was highly developed before Russia’s invasion (with 100% of its population having access to electricity) was devastated with about half of Ukraine’s power generation capacity either occupied by Russian forces, damaged, or destroyed over the course of 2022 and 2023. In addition, Ukraine’s natural gas production declined 6% in 2022 to its lowest level since 1999. By May 2024, about 70% of Ukraine’s thermal generation capacity was either occupied or damaged. Ukraine’s water supply infrastructure, including pumping stations, pipelines, wastewater treatment plants, and dams have also been devastated by the war.

By December 2022, there were 707 attacks on Ukraine’s healthcare system, including 86 attacks on health workers, as well as 292 attacks on 218 hospitals and clinics. Furthermore, healthcare facilities in 19 regions of Ukraine were damaged.

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As at October 2024, there are 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees globally, and an estimated 3.6 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, or 31.1% of  its 2023 population of 36.7 million. In addition, an estimated minimum 12,162 civilians have been killed, and 26,919 wounded, in addition to 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, and 400,000 wounded as at September 2024.

These losses, and emigration from Ukraine, have had devastating impacts on the demographics of Ukraine. Ukraine’s population declined to 29 million in 2023 from 42.8 million in 2021, and is projected to reach only about 35 million (around 20% less than the 2021 population) in 2040. This poses a significant threat to prospects for Ukraine’s recovery from its war with Russia, and its future viability as a free state.

Ukraine also suffered severe environmental impacts of Russia’s invasion, including surface water pollution and flooding. Ukraine also has a huge problem with mines and other explosive ordinances, with 156,000km? approximately 30% of its territory) being contaminated with explosives.

Meanwhile, the cost of reconstruction and recovery from the war has increased from an estimated US$349 billion in September 2022 to US$411 billion in March 2023, and US$486 billion in February 2024.

Following Russia’s invasion Nato, led by the US, pledged to support Ukraine defeat Russia. As such, US$249.8 billion of military, financial and humanitarian aid was provided to Ukraine between January 2022 and October, 2024, while the EU imposed economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia. US President Biden, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in June 2022 that Nato will, as long it takes or is necessary, provide Ukraine with weapons it needs to defeat Russia. Despite this massive support, Ukraine is now facing defeat by Russia because of a combination of huge casualties, heavy losses of equipment, and a shortage of soldiers.

Ukraine is where it is today because of the colossal leadership failure on the part of President Zelenskyy. First, Zelenskyy failed to take opportunities to end the war almost as soon as it had begun. For example, Zelenskyy failed to conclude the April 2022 peace talks on the verge of their successful conclusion opting instead, under pressure from the then Prime Minister of the UK Boris Johnson, to scuttle them.

Zelenskyy also foolishly allowed his country to be used by Nato as a proxy in their fight against Russia. In April 2022, the US Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin said that one of the US’s goals in supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia was to “see Russia weakened” and deter it from indulging in similar actions in the future. Zelenskyy should have seen a long time ago, that it is Nato’s, not Ukraine’s interests that matter in its war against Russia. Indeed, the newly-sworn in US President Trump might very well decide to dump Ukraine, and force it to end the war, never mind the consequences.

In addition, Zelenskyy has refused to accept the reality that Nato will never admit Ukraine as a member. Zelenskyy admitted in March 2022 that Nato had categorically told him that while the public posture of Nato is that it is open to Ukraine becoming a member, the reality was that it won’t, and probably never will be admitted as a member of the organisation.

Zelenskyy is learning the hard way that standing up to Russia is no skit. Indeed, all the standing ovations to his numerous speeches including those to the Joint Session of the US Congress, the Canadian, UK and European parliaments, the Diet of Japan, as well as the National Assembly of France have not won him his war against Russia. Neither has his trademark drab olive green T-shirt, which stands in stark contrast to Putin’s love for expensive luxury wear. Being the former satirical comedian that he is, Zelenskyy’s handling of the war with Russia has shown his gullibility and that he has fallen victim to the adulation and self-serving propaganda from Nato and Western countries.

Another fatal flaw of Zelenskyy prosecution of Ukraine’s war against Russia is that he underestimates, if he at all sees, the existential threat posed to Russia by Ukraine joining Nato. The Soviet Union lost almost 26.6 million people in World War II, and Russia will not sit idly and allow Nato to use Ukraine to encircle it.

Zelenskyy should know that Russia will not tolerate Ukraine’s membership of Nato, just as the US in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis did not tolerate the Soviet Union’s deployment of nuclear weapons on Cuba in 1962 (about 150km from the US). It is thus foolish, to put it mildly, of Zelenskyy to insist on joining Nato, which would create the prospect of having Nato military gear on its territory; a military posture the US would not tolerate from Cuba, and Russia will certainly not tolerate from Ukraine.

Zelenskyy is of course not the only person responsible for Ukraine’s tragedy. Ukrainian military and political leadership, as well as the Ukrainian people, the majority of whom initially were for fighting Russia, will also have to take some responsibility for the prolongation of the war. War mongers in Nato and other countries should also take some responsibility for fanning the flames of war which has, needlessly, raged on for almost three years now.

And here we are: Ukraine is on the verge of being defeated by Russia, and Ukrainians will have to live for a very long time to come with the consequences of the terrible choices made by their leadership, Zelenskyy especially.

Katim Seringe Touray, Ph D, (https://kstouray.medium.com/) is a Gambian soil scientist, international development consultant and writer on development issues, science, technology, and global affairs.

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