After 13 years of civil war, the end came about rapidly. In just a matter of days, Syria has witnessed the end of tyranny and the beginning of a new chapter.
What’s next though is unclear. Thirteen years ago, the now deposed dictator Bashar al-Assad brutally crushed a peaceful, pro-democracy uprising. What followed was a horrific civil war that killed more than half-a-million people and forced another 12 million to flee their homes.
Now, 80 per cent of the population is in need of humanitarian aid as the economy is broken from war, sanctions and upheaval. Around six million refugees fled the country and there are another six million people displaced within the country itself.
But the sands have shifted. An Islamist anti-government group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham led a major offensive in the north-west, together with allied factions. From there, the house of cards fell: Aleppo, Homs and then Damascus fell under the group’s control, as Assad was forced to flee the country.
Middle East analysts are comparing the collapse of the Assad regime to the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. It’s the end of one of the most brutal regimes in the region. The Assad family had ruled Syria with an iron fist since 1971, with the ousted president in place since the year 2000. Many have known little other than the dictatorship.
As rebels freed prisoners from Sednaya Prison in Damascus, it was reported that women being held in cells were shocked, distraught and confused, as they did not believe Assad could have been toppled.
Following autocratic rule, transitions to democracy are incredibly difficult, as the examples of Libya and Iraq show. Syria can now go two ways: descend into social, religious and ethnic upheaval or begin a process of nation-building with an inclusive government that integrates a diverse population of many communities.
The process will take many years and face many difficulties, as a half-century of autocratic rule has left scars, damage beyond belief and a devastated population. It has also left a void of power.
The rebels have promised a peaceful transition to a full democracy. In an ideal world, the international community would assist it in every way. But Syria is a strategically important country, and external forces will seek to gain a foothold in any new regime.
Iran and Russia helped prop up Assad and will now regroup to seek to interfere further in the country’s activities. Good actors also need to step up to offer Syria help and hope in this new era.
Prompted by the new developments, Israel has deployed troops to the border with Syria in the Golan Heights and yesterday morning announced it had destroyed Syria’s naval fleet. The prospect of further instability is real, with the possibility of Islamic State again re-emerging as a threat among the chaos.
