The political turmoil unfolding in Guinea-Bissau should worry not only its citizens but the entire West African region. When both the incumbent president and the opposition leader prematurely claimed victory in the recent elections, the credibility of the electoral process was already strained.
But the situation deteriorated sharply when the military intervened, seized control, suspended institutions, and placed the president incommunicado. This is not merely an internal crisis; it is a setback for democratic consolidation in a region already grappling with a resurgence of coups.
At the heart of the matter lies a fundamental question: what becomes of democracy when the institutions entrusted with safeguarding it are overwhelmed or undermined? Guinea-Bissau has long struggled with political instability, but this moment is particularly perilous.
With official results withheld, rival claims of victory, and the military stepping in as an arbiter, the will of the people has been effectively silenced. The suspension of civilian authority and democratic procedures risks normalising military intervention as a political solution rather than an aberration.
For West Africa, which has witnessed coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and attempted coups elsewhere, the events in Bissau reinforce a troubling trend. Each unconstitutional takeover chips away at regional norms, making democracy appear fragile, reversible, and subject to the whims of armed actors. ECOWAS and the African Union now face a critical test: their response must be swift, principled, and firm, or risk further erosion of their authority.
Ultimately, the people of Guinea-Bissau deserve a transparent vote count, functioning institutions, and leaders chosen by ballots—not bullets. The path back to constitutional order must prioritise dialogue, fairness, and strict adherence to democratic principles. The region cannot afford another democracy lost to the barracks.
