By Mohammed Jallow
West Africa is entering an unsettling chapter marked by political volatility, institutional fragility, and the steady corrosion of democratic norms that many sacrificed decades to build. Over the last few years, the sub region has witnessed a troubling return of attempted seizures of power through force, most recently exemplified by the attempted overthrow in Benin over the weekend. The event in Benin follows similar political ruptures and eruptions in Guinea Bissau barely two weeks ago, and the now entrenched militarised governments in Mali and Burkina Faso. Coupled with the political back lash that shook Senegal and reverberated across the region, these developments embody a broader crisis of governance, legitimacy, and citizen confidence.
This wave of political instability is not isolated within the French speaking West African corridor. Rather, it is producing concentric effects that threaten to engulf even the comparatively stable English speaking nations such as The Gambia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The psychological impact, the shift in mindset, and the contagious change of attitude toward leadership in the region is real and increasingly consequential. A growing number of young people, disenchanted with economic hardship and unfulfilled democratic promises, are romanticising authoritarian alternatives or applauding military intervention as a purging mechanism against corrupt civilian elites. This is a dangerous trajectory, a combustible ideological migration that risks setting the entire region ablaze.
The events unfolding in the region present urgent questions. What is the social, moral, political, and economic toll of these recurrent conflicts? What are the real implications under the symbolic but seemingly weakened watch of Ecowas, the African Union, and the United Nations? How did the regional architecture become so vulnerable and so incapable of deterring unconstitutional changes of government? And more importantly, what must governments, regional bodies, and the international community do to restore stability and avert further ruptures?
To understand the gravity of the threat, one must dissect the existing realities in each affected country, the root causes of resentment, and the simmering pressures pushing young soldiers to turn their weapons inward on their own states.
Benin: A warning shot to a model of stability
Benin was once celebrated as one of Africa’s most stable democracies. The attempted coup over the weekend shatters that image and exposes deepening fractures beneath the surface. Growing public dissatisfaction with economic stagnation, allegations of shrinking civic space, and perceptions of political exclusion have emboldened extremist factions and renegade elements within the armed forces. Although the attempt failed, it reveals a truth that West Africans must confront. No country is immune to democratic decay when legitimate grievances are ignored or when leaders fail to build inclusive political cultures.
The psychological consequence of this attempted overthrow is profound. It signals to disillusioned groups across the region that even long standing democratic traditions can be vulnerable. It fertilises the soil for further attempts elsewhere. It also intensifies the mindset shift in neighbouring countries where citizens believe that if elites refuse reform and accountability, force becomes the only language the system listens to. This is the exact political trajectory that must be urgently reversed.
Guinea Bissau: A state held hostage by political fragmentation
The recent attacks in Guinea Bissau two weeks ago again underscore the chronic instability that has plagued the country for decades. Guinea Bissau is a state where political divisions, weak institutions, and external influences create perfect conditions for power struggles. The line between political contestation and armed confrontation is dangerously thin. Constant military interference has eroded confidence in constitutional leadership.
The situation in Guinea Bissau is not just a domestic concern. It is a regional vulnerability that exposes West Africa to transnational crime, trafficking networks, and radicalisation. The country sits at the intersection of economic fragility and geopolitical manipulation. Without decisive reform, Guinea Bissau risks becoming a perennial weak link that undermines the security architecture of the entire region.
Mali and Burkina Faso: The Rise of Militarised Nationalism
The coups in Mali and Burkina Faso represent an ideological shift shaped by public exhaustion with extremist violence, unemployment, and perceptions of corrupt democratic elites. Both countries have embraced militarised nationalism under the guise of anti colonial rhetoric. Their leaders have framed democratic governance as an external imposition rather than a domestic aspiration.
The moral implications are devastating. Citizens living under these regimes face severe restrictions on civil liberties, media freedom, and political participation. Economically, both countries remain strangled by sanctions, declining foreign investment, and worsening poverty. Politically, their exit from ECOWAS stands as a monumental failure of regional diplomacy and an indictment of the bloc’s inability to manage crises before they escalate into ruptures.
The contagion effect from Mali and Burkina Faso is enormous. Young people across West Africa increasingly view the military as the only actor capable of sweeping away corrupt political establishments. This sentiment, if left unchecked, will eventually spread into the English speaking zones.
Senegal: Democratic pride shaken by political backlash
Senegal has long been a symbol of political maturity and democratic pride in West Africa. However, the political storms of the last years, characterised by violent protests, contested legal reforms, and mass youth resentment, have dented that reputation. Senegal’s turmoil sent shockwaves throughout the region because if Senegal can wobble, anybody can fall.
The political backlash in Senegal revealed how fragile democratic legitimacy becomes when leaders underestimate the power of youth consciousness, economic frustration, and social media driven mobilisation. It also demonstrated the speed at which a nation can drift toward disorder when political elites prioritise power dynamics over national cohesion.
How these developments threaten The Gambia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
The English speaking countries of the region are not insulated. The Gambia, Liberia, and Sierra Leone all share common vulnerabilities. They have youthful populations, economic pressures, public frustration with slow reforms, and heavily politicised security forces. Many citizens in these countries are observing events in the French speaking West Africa with growing empathy and ideological influence. The belief that military intervention can be a corrective mechanism is gaining traction among the most disillusioned segments of the population.
The Gambia for instance, despite its democratic progress, remains vulnerable to institutional fragility, weak security reforms, and high public expectations. Liberia and Sierra Leone face similar challenges around corruption perception, unemployment, and fragile governance. Unless political leaders in these countries engage in meaningful reforms, strengthen institutions, and maintain transparent governance, they risk becoming the next theatres of instability.
The social and moral decay fueled by recurrent conflicts
The social implications of these regional conflicts are severe. Communities become polarised. Ethnic divisions deepen. Youth become radically politicised. The moral compass of societies shifts as force becomes more respected than constitutional order. Families are displaced, dreams are shattered, and national cohesion becomes eroded.
The conflicts have also increased crime, radicalisation, and the proliferation of small arms. These conditions are fertile grounds for insurgency, violent extremism, and criminal enterprises.
Political and economic consequences
The political cost is the loss of legitimacy for civilian governments. The economic cost is profound. Investor confidence collapses. Inflation worsens. Tourism dies. Regional trade weakens. Foreign aid becomes unpredictable. Poverty deepens. Young people migrate in greater numbers, often through deadly irregular routes.
The cumulative effect is a region caught between regression and paralysis.
Ecowas, the African Union, and the United Nations: Toothless in the Eyes of Citizens
Increasingly, citizens across West Africa view Ecowas, the AU, and even the UN as ceremonial bodies that issue statements but lack the capacity to prevent or resolve crises. The perception that these institutions are toothless dogs is not far from the truth. Their inability to deter coups before they occur has diminished public trust.
Moreover, their sanctions regimes and diplomatic posturing often appear inconsistent, politically selective, or externally influenced. This undermines their moral authority.
The hypocrisy is evident. Some leaders with questionable democratic credentials are defended while others are condemned. Some are sanctioned while others receive quiet indulgence. Citizens recognise this inconsistency, and it fuels further resentment.
Designated responsibilities and the way forward
Governments must:
1. Strengthen state institutions and ensure accountability across all sectors.
2. Undertake security sector reforms to depoliticise the armed forces.
3. Invest massively in youth employment and skills development.
4. Guarantee civil liberties to rebuild citizen trust.
5. Reduce corruption through independent oversight mechanisms.
6. Engage in national dialogue to address grievances before they explode.
Ecowas must:
1. Redefine its conflict prevention strategy with real enforcement mechanisms.
2. Promote preventive diplomacy rather than reactionary sanctions.
3. Engage civil societies directly rather than relying solely on governments.
4. Establish a rapid response unit to deter coups in real time.
5. Hold leaders accountable when they erode constitutional order.
The African Union must:
1. Harmonise continental security architecture.
2. Create a continental deterrence policy with clear consequences.
3. Strengthen early warning systems.
4. Mediate conflicts more assertively and transparently.
The international community must:
1. Support governance reforms without imposing external political models.
2. Encourage economic cooperation that builds local industries.
3. Assist with security training focused on civilian protection.
4. Address external influences that fuel instability through geopolitical competition.
Root causes of coup attempts
The recurring coups stem from several interconnected causes:
1. Corruption and misuse of national resources.
2. Inequality, poverty, and youth unemployment.
3. Politicisation and fragmentation of the armed forces.
4. Human rights abuses and shrinking civic space.
5. External manipulation and foreign interest.
6. Failed reforms and broken electoral promises.
Until these root causes are addressed, the cycle will continue.
Conclusion: A call to conscience and leadership
West Africa stands at a crossroads. The region can either descend into a new era of disordered governance or rise above the current turbulence with renewed commitment to democratic principles, transparency, and inclusive leadership. Ecowas and the AU must reclaim their credibility by demonstrating moral courage, consistency, and strategic foresight. Leaders must listen to the voices of their citizens and govern with empathy.
The message is simple but urgent. The sustainability of our democracies depends on the courage of our leaders and the vigilance of our regional institutions. The time to act is now. West Africa cannot afford another decade of instability, hypocrisy, and unending rupture. The fate of our future generations depends on the choices we make today.
