By Dr Ebrima Ceesay
The Gambia’s 2026 national budget, worth D43.49 billion dalasis (around US$596 million), captures a government striving to walk the fine line between ambition and restraint. It comes at a time when The Gambia must sustain post-pandemic recovery, respond to social pressures, and contain a growing debt burden. What emerges from this fiscal blueprint is a portrait of a small nation managing to stay afloat but still searching for a stronger current to propel it forward.
The government projects a deficit of D2.07 billion (about US$28 million), or roughly 1 percent of GDP. On paper, that is an impressive figure, a symbol of fiscal discipline in an era of global economic instability. Yet, beneath the headline, much of this stability relies on domestic borrowing, estimated at D7.6 billion (about US$104 million), and substantial foreign grants. In other words, The Gambia is balancing its budget not by growing new revenue streams, but by depending on old friends and expensive credit. The numbers might add up, but the foundation remains fragile.
On the revenue side, the budget anticipates D50.29 billion (equivalent to US$689 million) in total receipts and grants, a healthy 12 percent increase over last year. Encouragingly, tax revenues are set to climb by almost 28 percent, reaching D27.01 billion (about US$370 million). This surge likely reflects improved tax administration and a modest recovery in trade and consumption. But the picture is clouded by the steep 34 percent drop in non-tax revenues, which fall from D7.96 billion to D5.19 billion (about US$71 million). That decline signals continuing weaknesses among state-owned enterprises and limited diversification of income sources. Meanwhile, grants, projected at D18.08 billion (about US$248 million dollars), remain indispensable – generous, but unpredictable.
The spending story is no less complex. Out of the D43.49 billion total, D25.73 billion (equivalent to US$352 million) goes to recurrent expenditure – wages, operations, and administration – while D20.17 billion (about US$276 million) is earmarked for development. Yet, debt service alone consumes D13.46 billion (approximately US$185 million), nearly a third of total spending. This means that for every three dalasis The Gambia spends, one is swallowed by past obligations. It is a sobering reality: The Gambia spends more paying yesterday’s debts than building tomorrow’s schools, clinics, or roads.
Education and health still dominate as the government’s visible priorities. The Ministry of Basic and Secondary Education receives D5.91 billion (about US $81 million), and the Ministry of Health gets D3.14 billion (about US $43 million dollars). These two key ministries alone absorb about one-fifth of the entire budget, a testament to the Gambia’s continued focus on human development. The Ministry for the Interior follows with D2.37 billion (about US $32 million), and Finance and Economic Affairs at D2.22 billion (equivalent to US$30 million). But looming over them all is debt service, a silent ministry of its own, demanding more than any other.
The structure of development financing exposes a deeper vulnerability. About 71 percent of development projects are expected to be funded by grants, another 21 percent from government resources, and only 7 percent through concessional loans. Major contributors like the World Bank, African Development Bank, Ifad, France, and the Global Fund remain the backbone of this effort. Their support is invaluable, but such heavy dependence raises questions about sustainability and autonomy. A single delay in donor disbursement can paralyse national programmes. Meanwhile, debt service already exceeds 6 percent of GDP, tightening the noose around fiscal flexibility.
Equity is another point of concern. The budget’s wage bill has ballooned to D10.3 billion (about US$141 million), while subsidies total D8 billion (about US $110 million). These figures are not inherently bad – government salaries and targeted support are necessary – but they reveal how little space remains for transformative investments. Without strong accountability and performance-based management, funds risk being absorbed by administrative structures rather than reaching rural farmers, informal workers, or women entrepreneurs who need them most. A fair budget is not only about allocation; it is about impact.
Still, the 2026 budget deserves recognition for what it gets right. The deficit is under control, inflationary pressure is modest, and human development sectors are clearly prioritised. In a turbulent world, such steadiness is no small feat. Yet, the budget stops short of reimagining the fiscal architecture itself. It is prudent without being bold, stable without being transformative. Fiscal restraint has preserved order, but order alone will not create opportunity.
The way forward requires moving beyond caution. The Gambia must broaden its revenue base, especially by strengthening non-tax sources, from state-enterprise dividends to land leases and digital services. It must improve spending efficiency, linking every dalasi (and every 1.37 cents) to measurable outcomes in education, health, and agriculture. The public wage bill needs rationalisation, not reduction for its own sake, but reform to reward performance and curb waste. Subsidies should shift toward productivity, supporting smallholder farmers, renewable energy, and youth enterprises, instead of perpetuating institutional dependence. And debt management must become more transparent, with regular public reporting and clear limits on short-term domestic borrowing.
Above all, the government must invest in what builds resilience: local production, agribusiness, infrastructure, and human capacity. These are the pillars that can shift the economy from donor-driven to self-driven growth. Grants and loans may sustain development, but only productivity can sustain independence. The Gambia’s 2026 budget, then, stands as both a success and a warning. It proves that disciplined management can stabilise an economy yet also reminds us that stability without transformation is stagnation in disguise. The task before policymakers is not just to keep the books balanced, but to balance the nation’s aspirations with its realities.
Here, I must take the opportunity to state that Sheriff Saikouba Sisay (1935–1989) stands out as the only one known to have achieved a balanced national budget. During his tenure as Minister of Finance from 1962 to 1967, Sheriff Sisay was a staunch advocate of fiscal discipline. He repeatedly warned that persistent budget deficits would saddle future generations with unsustainable debt. Guided by this conviction, Sheriff Sisay ensured that each annual budget aligned government spending strictly with available revenue, an approach that allowed The Gambia to live within its means during a period of profound uncertainty about its economic viability.
At independence in 1965, many observers doubted whether The Gambia could survive as a viable political and economic unit. Yet Sheriff Sisay’s firm adherence to conservative fiscal policies reassured both domestic and international partners that the new nation was committed to responsible financial management. He famously resisted political pressure to authorise extra-budgetary expenditures, insisting that “the government must spend no more than it earns”.
One striking example of his fiscal prudence emerged during the 1974 Colloquium on Senegambia, held at the University of Aberdeen from 3–5 April 1974. At this Aberdeen University forum, Omadi Diarra (1932–1995), then The Gambia’s Ambassador to Senegal, recounted that the opening of The Gambia’s High Commission in Dakar, Senegal, had been delayed from 1965 to January 1966. The delay, Diarra explained, occurred because Minister Sheriff Sisay had refused to authorise a supplementary appropriation for the mission until the start of the new fiscal year. The episode, while minor on the surface, exemplified Sheriff Sisay’s unwavering commitment to fiscal order and accountability, in the immediate aftermath of Gambia’s independence in 1965.
The Aberdeen University Colloquium, organised by the University of Aberdeen African Studies Group, was a significant intellectual gathering that brought together scholars, diplomats, and students interested in the history and politics of the Senegambian region…
Sheriff Sisay’s legacy as The Gambia’s first Finance Minister remains emblematic of a period when fiscal conservatism was both a necessity and a principle of governance. Appointed in June 1962 by Prime Minister Dawda Jawara to serve in his first cabinet, Sisay was also among the signatories of the Gambia Independence Act of 1964, which paved the way for full sovereignty and Commonwealth membership. Despite the daunting post-independence challenges, Sheriff Sisay’s disciplined approach to budgeting and his insistence on financial restraint helped lay the foundations of The Gambia’s early fiscal stability. In hindsight, Sheriff Sisay’s tenure illustrates a rare balance between political ambition and economic prudence, one that remains instructive for contemporary policymakers navigating the perennial challenge of aligning national aspirations with fiscal realities.
Finally, coming back to the Gambia’s 2026 national budget, it must be stated that The Gambia continues to prioritise education, health, and debt management, critical anchors of progress. But to translate these priorities into real change, fiscal policy must evolve from accounting exercise to strategic investment. Every figure in the budget, every dalasi allocated, must tell a story of inclusion, productivity, and opportunity.
Dr Ebrima Ceesay is a former Gambian journalist, now academic who works and lives in the UK.
