The Russia-Ukraine war needs to and can be brought to a quick end
By Katim S Touray, PhD
A Russian woman and her Ukrainian fiancé draped in their nation’s flags at a music concert in Poland in November 2019. Source: https://tinyurl.com/37pwx2hb
On 24th February, 2022, Russia invaded neighbouring Ukraine in what it called a “special military operation” to, among other reasons, prevent it from becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato). Ukraine rose up to fight Russia, its much more powerful neighbour, and former fellow Soviet republic.
Three years of war has brought nothing but devastation and grief to Ukraine. For example, Ukraine’s population declined to 29 million in 2023 from 42.8 million in 2021, because of emigration and war deaths, thus posing a significant threat to future viability of Ukraine as a free state. Furthermore, Ukraine’s military victories soon fizzled because of huge casualties, heavy losses of equipment, and a shortage of soldiers. Ukraine is now facing defeat by Russia and will probably never be admitted as a member of Nato, as Zelenskyy admitted in March 2022. This was reaffirmed a few days ago, by the Secretary of Defence of the United States, the strongest member of Nato.
Efforts to end Russia’s invasion started almost as soon as it started, and since then, about 25 peace plans that have been proposed, including those from Ukraine, and Russia. The more hawkish proposals call for a peace through strength approach, while others call for dialogue and compromise by both Russia and Ukraine. Thus, a report for the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs recommends that the EU should prepare for a long war and provide Ukraine with all the resources it needs to defeat Russia. On the other hand, many proposals, including those from China and Brazil, Indonesia, and Africa, call for dialogue and mutual compromise to end the war.
Against this background, this proposal provides path to ending the conflict, and assuring Ukraine of a peaceful, prosperous and secure future. The proposal also provides for the participation of Ukraine and Russia as well as the EU, other European countries, the US and the UN in the peace process. This proposal is thus markedly different from the present approach of the US government which has left Ukraine and the European countries aghast at the prospect or thought of being left out of negotiations with Russia.
And you might ask, why would someone from a small African country, The Gambia, care much about the Russia-Ukraine war. Well, I suggest you read my article, A Chicken and Goat Story, about the risk of being swallowed by a conflict that one never thought they’d be a victim of. In addition, a Gambian died in the 9/11 Al-Qaeda attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York City in 2001, and a son of Gambian friend of mine has been grappling with mental health problems since returning from the war of the US-led Coalition forces war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Another Gambian friend of mine also told me that a relative of theirs who was serving the military of one of the Western countries was at one time training Ukrainian soldiers. I also have Gambian friends who schooled in the former Soviet Union in universities in what are now the Russian Federation and Ukraine. At the continental level, the Russia-Ukraine war has been detrimental to food security and economic development in Africa, and Africans have also fought and died in the Russia-Ukraine war. It’s a small world, and we all should, for moral and practical reasons, work toward a quick and peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The proposal herein calls for a five-phase, 13-step peace process starting with a preparatory phase during which a Framework Agreement (FA) will be negotiated, followed by the implementation of the FA, peace talks, and a consolidation phase. The last phase of the peace process will be the recovery and rehabilitation phase to enable Ukraine recover from the devastation of the conflict.
Phase I: Preparatory phase
The first phase of the Peace Plan would be the preparatory phase, the first step of which will be the issuance of a UN Security Council Resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire, along the lines of its Resolution 598 which led to the end of the Iran-Iraq War.
The second step would be for the parties to negotiate a Framework Agreement (FA) to lay the groundwork for peace talks leading to a peace treaty, akin to the Framework for the Conclusion of a Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel which formed the basis for the 1979 Peace Treaty between them.
The FA will provide for the exchange of prisoners of war (PoWs), as well as the remains of those killed in the conflict. It will also include a commitment by Ukraine and Russia to prepare for, and have peace talks to end the war. In particular, Ukraine will prepare for, and conduct elections and a referendum, and make the necessary legal and policy changes to prepare it for the peace talks.
Similarly, Russia will conduct any legal and policy changes identified in the FA negotiations, as well as prepare for and conduct a referendum in Ukrainian territories it occupies or has annexed, in readiness for the peace talks. The FA will also include the next steps to ending the conflict, as well as a timeline for the implementation of activities leading to a comprehensive and lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia.
Participants in the FA negotiations will, in addition to Ukraine and Russia, include Nato, the European Union, as well as the US, and possibly others mutually agreed to by Ukraine and Russia. Furthermore, the FA will include an outline of the security guarantee that Ukraine will be provided by the international community (especially the EU and the UNSC) if an agreement is reached to end the conflict with Russia.
Phase II: Implementation of the Framework Agreement
Phase II of the peace process will be the implementation of the FA starting with the exchange of prisoners and remains of the dead (the third step). From the first exchange of prisoners in March 2022, to 15th January, 2024, there has been at least 60 exchanges of 2,803 Russian PoWs (including 121 civilians), as well as 3,963 Ukrainian PoWs (including 167 civilians). Similarly, a total of 554 and 2,408 remains of dead Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, respectively, were exchanged in six exchanges between June 2022 and January 2025.
There is thus a track record of the exchange of PoWs and the remains of the dead, in addition to the fact that these exchanges have often been supported by third parties such as the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye and the ICRC. This experience should be leveraged, and these parties engaged to ensure a speedy and smooth exchange, between Ukraine and Russia, of all prisoners soon after the signing of the FA.
The fourth step will be to make necessary changes in Ukraine’s laws and policies, to lay the ground for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Specifically, the Martial Law declared by President Zelenskyy in February 2022 should be lifted, and the October 2022 Decree banning negotiations with Russia should be repealed.
Following Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine declared Martial Law, and this has since been extended every 90 days. According to the Martial Law provisions, if the term of office of the President ends during Martial Law, s/he can stay in office until a President elected after Martial Law takes office. For this reason, Zelensky had to stay in power after his five-year term ended in May 2024.
Similarly, Ukrainian’s Constitution provides, with some caveats, that should the term of the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) expire while Martial Law or a State of Emergency is in effect, its term should be extended until the first sitting of new parliament elected after the lifting of Martial Law or the State of Emergency. Martial Law should thus be lifted once the FA has been signed, to allow presidential and parliamentary elections leading to a new government and legislature that would put Ukraine on a solid footing for negotiating and end to the conflict with Russia.
Katim S Touray, PhD is a soil scientist and international development consultant, reachable at katimstouray@yahoo.com or https://kstouray.medium.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/kstouray for more articles:
