By Lt Col Samsudeen Sarr Rtd
Three weeks into this devastating Middle East war, the bombs keep falling, missiles keep streaking across the sky, and yet, Iran still stands resilient, defiant, and far from broken.
In his Eid-ul Fitr address to the Muslim elders of Banjul on Friday, President Adama Barrow paused to cast a thoughtful eye on the Middle East conflict, cautioning about its ripple effects on global peace, yet choosing measured words that avoided finger-pointing and championed dialogue, calm, and restraint.
Having said that, here’s what I think: The world may have underestimated the Iranian resolve, and the fallout is already hitting all of us.
The fantasy that a few precise airstrikes could topple the Iranian regime in few days has been shattered. Tehran’s government and military remain intact, retaliating where it hurts, while the declarations of obliterating its arsenals ring hollow. It’s almost comical for leaders to claim total destruction, yet beg Nato allies and Japan to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s energy choke point.
Even more revealing is the lack of a unified strategy between the US and Israel. They are on the same side, but it seems they are aiming for different targets, making swift victory a distant dream.
The conflict isn’t just in the deserts but is beginning to affect our wallets. Oil jumped from US$103 last week to nearly US$120 per barrel now and could spike to US$200 if fighting continues. Liquified natural gas supplies are disrupted, fertilizer trade is in chaos, food prices are climbing, and farmers everywhere are paying the price. What started as a regional war is now a global crisis in energy, agriculture, and stability.
Will more deaths make Iranians rise against their government? History says no. The 1979 Iranian Revolution saw 20,000 killed over 13 months, and every funeral fuelled more protest. Death did not terrify the people but galvanized them. Airstrikes may injure, may kill, may destroy, but they are unlikely to break Iran quickly. In my book, the people’s resilience is immeasurable.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, 20th February admitted the truth that only a ground invasion could achieve regime change.
On the same day, 2Oth March, Donald Trump floated the prospect of winding down the war, a glimmer of hope, though one that may prove elusive without Israel firmly on board.
Yet that optimism is quickly overshadowed by a harsher arithmetic. The urgent US$200 billion request from Pete Hegseth with an expenditure rate on the war of US$1 billion a day, points not to an ending, but to six more months of the conflict, stretching the war’s shadow toward-as predicted-September.
Meanwhile, thousands of US Marines are moving toward Kharg Island, the jewel of Iran’s oil exports.
Military experts regard the plan of seizing the Island as extremely ambitious, but as a high-risk gamble played on a razor’s edge.
To seize Kharg Island with a modest force of 3,000 to 5,000 troops may deliver the fleeting advantage of surprise, but it is a gamble laden with disproportionate strategic danger. The more probable course is not a swift, decisive triumph, but a dangerous spiral into a deadly protracted confrontation.
For such an operation to stand even a reasonable chance of success, the United States and Israel need to marshal overwhelming force and precision of utter air supremacy, unchallenged naval dominance, and a ground force no fewer than four to seven times the initial 5000 anticipated contingent. This must be underpinned by a resilient missile defence shield, a seamless and protected logistics supply, and a sharply defined objective achievable within a compressed timeframe.
Anything short of this will transform the operation from a bold stroke of military initiative into a dangerous overreach, one in which a relatively small expeditionary force risks being trapped and ultimately exploited to Iran’s strategic advantage.
A more ambitious scenario contemplates the seizure of Iran’s enriched uranium from its hardened underground nuclear complexes, such as Natanz Nuclear Facility and Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. It is a concept as audacious as it is dangerous, and its long-term effectiveness remains highly uncertain.
Even if such an operation were tactically successful, it would not resolve the underlying strategic dilemma of Iran retaining the technical capacity to rebuild its program. Moreover, history suggests that destruction of infrastructure rarely equates to elimination of capability.
More critically, Tehran would almost certainly mount an asymmetric military and political response, risking a wider regional firestorm.
If the current ferocity endures, the fallout will not be confined to the battlefield. Across Africa, wreak economies may buckle under the weight of soaring costs and global uncertainty, turning the war into a deeply felt economic, social and political storm.
Before drawing the curtain, let us digest this irony. In a 30-day waiver, Washington has allowed the sale of Iranian oil already stranded at sea, a technical adjustment designed to inject immediate supply into a tightening global market. It illustrates that modern warfare is no longer fought solely on battlefields, but also in markets.
A rough but credible estimate talks of 140 million barrels, at the current prices hovering roughly at around US$120 per barrel and totalling US$17 billion in gross value.
However, officials in Iran have downplayed the move, arguing that there is little surplus oil available and casting the waiver as a market-calming tactic rather than a genuine opportunity.
Air campaigns alone have failed. Ground operations may buy time but won’t end the conflict. As the end of March approaches, the world watches, holding its breath. History, strategy, and the unyielding Iranian spirit suggest there is no easy victory yet. Eid Mubarak. May this Eid bring the entire world peace, joy, love and endless blessing. Amen!
Lt Col Samsudeen Sarr (Rtd) is a former Commander of The Gambia National Army, diplomat and author.
